Allocate

Each week, Allocate’s Investments Team highlights a resource shaping our market view. This week, Ben Weintraub reflects on the latest memo from Howard Marks (Co-Chairman of Oaktree Capital Management, L.P.) which explores whether the AI buildout resembles past speculative cycles — or signals a more durable shift in capital formation. Drawing from historical analogs and credit market dynamics, Marks offers a measured lens on risk and opportunity. Key insights include: • Not all bubbles are destructive: Marks distinguishes between “mean-reversion” bubbles that leave no value (e.g. subprime) and “inflection” bubbles that overcapitalize transformative infrastructure (e.g. railroads, internet). AI may fit the latter category. • Returns ≠ transformation: Citing Buffett’s 1999 comments on autos, Marks reminds us: paradigm shifts often outpace investor profits. Value creation is not the same as value capture. • Debt is the weak link: Winner-take-all markets reward equity holders, not lenders. With $5 trillion in AI spend projected, credit investors face poor asymmetry. • Signs of excess are growing: From circular deal structures to long-dated debt issued by companies with limited cash, financing behavior increasingly mirrors late-1990s telecom and early-2000s SPV patterns. • Proceed, but with precision: Marks’s advice is neither fear nor euphoria: “No one should go all-in… but no one should stay all-out.” Selectivity is key. 🔗 https://lnkd.in/gy6sHEVx Nic Millikan, CFA, Camila Orozco Gil

Private markets are growing fast, but many advisors are still held back by legacy systems. In a new segment with The Wealth Advisor on Wealth Advisor TV, Allocate’s Samir Kaji shares why the shift is no longer about access alone. It is about infrastructure, and whether firms have the systems in place to scale without friction. Samir unpacks: • Why PDFs, spreadsheets, and manual processes remain the norm • What a unified private markets stack should enable — from fund creation to portfolio aggregation • How leading wealth firms are rethinking alternatives as a core portfolio strategy, not a sidecar The message is clear: demand is not the issue. Execution is. Thank you to The Wealth Advisor for having us! 🔗 Full conversation at https://lnkd.in/gvyjnX7t

As public markets show renewed momentum and private markets recalibrate, a few key questions have emerged: Where is capital concentrating? How are liquidity constraints evolving? And what signals matter most heading into the next cycle? These are some of the themes we’ll explore during Allocate’s State of the Market webinar on Wednesday, November 5. Join Samir Kaji as we walk through insights rooted in real-time platform data and conversations with GPs and LPs across the ecosystem. 📈 Reserve your seat here: https://lnkd.in/gVUMUMri

Each week, Allocate’s Investments Team highlights a resource shaping our market view. This week, Ben Weintraub reflects on insights from the Risk Reversal podcast with Guy Adami and Liz Thomas of SoFi, which underscores three emerging market dislocations: • Correlations are cracking: Japanese yields are reaching multi-decade highs even as the yen weakens — suggesting skepticism toward traditional policy levers. Meanwhile, Bitcoin is decoupling from gold and tracking the NASDAQ, signaling a shift in investor behavior. • The Fed’s reach may be limited: The 10-year Treasury yield has barely moved since the Fed paused hikes in September. Mortgage rates remain elevated, with meaningful relief historically arriving only alongside broader economic softening. • Volatility is re-emerging: The S&P 500 is down just 0.5%, yet the VIX spiked above 21 on quiet trading days. This divergence hints at fragility in momentum-heavy names. December rate cut odds have fallen from 65% to 40%, even as inflation lingers. 🔗 https://lnkd.in/gHgcXyuV Nic Millikan, CFA, Camila Orozco Gil

As 2025 wraps, wealth managers are focused on technology that simplifies complexity. Top priorities include automation, system integration, and better alignment across workflows. AI-powered tools are moving beyond meeting support. Advisors now expect them to manage follow-ups, populate forms, and initiate next steps — reducing time spent on manual processes. There is also growing demand for unified systems. Both advisors and clients want a single, real-time view of portfolios — public and private — without relying on disconnected platforms or duplicate reporting. Standalone tools are becoming harder to justify. Platforms that do not integrate into the broader tech stack, or that require redundant data entry — are losing relevance as firms shift toward scalable, connected infrastructure. Together, these shifts point to a broader movement: wealth teams are aligning around systems that integrate, automate, and enable more strategic client engagement. The full article by Gregg Greenberg in InvestmentNews, featuring insights from leaders like Christine Leong Connors of Verita Strategic Wealth Partners, offers a thoughtful look at where wealth teams see the most value heading into 2026. 🔗 https://lnkd.in/gbrcAATd

Private markets are at an inflection point, and technology is the catalyst. Technology, not access, is now the gating factor. On a recent episode of Tank Talks by Ripple Ventures, Samir Kaji unpacks the structural shifts reshaping private markets, advisor technology, and wealth management. The conversation with host Matt Cohen offers timely insights for institutional investors and advisory firms navigating today’s changing landscape. Key themes: • Infrastructure is becoming the key constraint, not access • Advisors are scaling personalization through data-driven tools • Fund managers are distributing more efficiently without expanding teams Samir also touches on Allocate’s latest platform milestones and what they signal about the road ahead. 🎧 Full conversation at https://lnkd.in/gF4TczMQ

As Allocate continues to scale, we're adding key roles across the organization — including two that are especially timely: 𝗢𝗳𝗳𝗶𝗰𝗲 𝗠𝗮𝗻𝗮𝗴𝗲𝗿, 𝗖𝗹𝗶𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝗘𝘅𝗽𝗲𝗿𝗶𝗲𝗻𝗰𝗲 (https://lnkd.in/gKNaUpdk)  Lead daily operations at our new headquarters, foster a high-performance workplace culture, and support executive leadership. This is a hands-on, people-first role with high impact. 𝗠𝗮𝗻𝗮𝗴𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗗𝗶𝗿𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗼𝗿, 𝗣𝗿𝗶𝘃𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗜𝗻𝘃𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁𝘀 (https://lnkd.in/gCZA4aSn) Help drive manager diligence and sourcing across venture capital, private equity, and other private asset classes. Ideal for an experienced investor with deep GP relationships and a platform mindset. These are two of several open roles. If you’re energized by the opportunity to shape the future of private markets access, we encourage you to explore the full list at https://lnkd.in/gAE4fj2n

Each week, Allocate’s Investments Team highlights a resource informing our market perspective. This week, Ben Weintraub features "Private credit deals see a rise in ‘bad PIKs’ showing ‘cracks’ in the market for corporate debt" by Jim Edwards in Fortune. The piece spotlights a meaningful shift in private credit deal structures and what it signals for lender risk. Lincoln International’s latest portfolio valuation data shows a clear trend: PIK features are becoming more common, and a growing share are being added after closing rather than negotiated at signing. These “bad PIKs” reflect negative surprises in borrower performance and mark an early-stage weakening in credit quality across the market. Key insights include: • PIK amendments indicate emerging stress, not systemic breakdown. PIK usage increased from 7 percent of private credit deals in late 2021 to 10.6 percent in the third quarter of 2025. More importantly, the portion classified as “bad PIKs” rose from 36.7 percent to 57.2 percent over the same period. Yet Lincoln notes that 68 percent of its covered companies grew revenue over the past year and 62 percent improved EBITDA. The market is showing cracks, but not structural failure. • Yield remains a strong shock absorber. Strategists highlight modest increases in distressed borrowings, but private credit coupons in the 8 to 12 percent range continue to compensate lenders meaningfully. As Janney’s Guy LeBas notes, yields offer enough protection that credit deterioration must become material before performance suffers relative to public alternatives. • Actual prevalence may be higher than reported. Some managers believe PIK penetration is understated and point to widening spreads over Treasuries, combined with increased leverage layered on top of private credit exposure. These dynamics suggest more risk in the system than headline data alone implies. 🔗 https://lnkd.in/gzd4V5UW

Private markets are entering their electronic trading moment. In a new article for WealthManagement.com, Allocate's Samir Kaji outlines why private markets infrastructure is now the primary constraint on advisor growth. As client demand accelerates, most advisors still rely on outdated systems — spreadsheets, PDFs, scattered portals — that make scaling private allocations slow and manual. The piece reframes a common narrative: access alone is no longer the barrier. Instead, the industry faces a structural gap. Without a centralized data layer, advisors struggle to match opportunities to clients, understand portfolio exposures, and communicate effectively across books of business. As a result, practices that could serve 100 private markets clients often serve just 20 or 30. Samir describes what the next evolution requires — centralized data, intelligent matching, and streamlined workflows — as well as how AI will accelerate this transition. With more structured data, advisors can expect improvements in everything from suitability assessments to subscription execution to real-time monitoring. The full article offers a concise take on where the space is heading and what infrastructure will need to support it 🔗 https://lnkd.in/gUE7b5fj

This Thanksgiving week, we’re grateful for the voices contributing to our content ecosystem — sharing experience and perspective on how private markets continue to evolve. From GPs and CIOs to COOs and advisor teams, thank you to the authors, speakers, and hosts who’ve shared their perspectives with our community. Your insights help advance private markets education — keeping it practical, relevant, and grounded in real-world experience. If you haven’t explored our Substack yet (https://lnkd.in/gk6DA7nt), you’ll find: • 𝗔𝗹𝗹𝗼𝗰𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗣𝗼𝗱𝗰𝗮𝘀𝘁: conversations with investors and operators on strategy, firm-building, and today’s private markets environment • 𝗔𝗹𝗹𝗼𝗰𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗕𝗹𝗼𝗴: actionable perspectives for CIOs, investment committees, and advisory teams Thank you for the insights that help shape a clearer, more informed view of today’s private markets landscape. Cameron Dawson, CFA, John Clendening, Taylor Matthews, John McArthur, CIMA®, David Govshtein, Anna-Marie Allander Lieb, Neil Malik, Dave Breslin, Logan Allin, Teddy Gold, Vivek Jindal, Nik Talreja, Richard Golaszewski, CFA, Alan Zafran, Ashley MacNeill, Matt Harris, Samir Kaji, Nic Millikan, CFA, Ben Weintraub