中国外贸能否抵御全球衰退的冲击？2023年出口市场前瞻

中国外贸能否抵御全球衰退的冲击？2023年出口市场前瞻

Can China's Foreign Trade Withstand the Impact of Global Recession? 2023 Export Market Outlook

文｜余向荣 | By Yu Xiangrong

2023年中国出口可能出现低个位数下滑，但不会重演全球金融危机时的突然崩塌。中国在全球贸易中的份额有望继续扩大。

China's exports may experience a low single-digit decline in 2023, but won't see a sudden collapse like during the global financial crisis. China's share in global trade is expected to continue expanding.

外需可能是2023年中国经济增长最大的变数。过去几个月出口增速明显下滑，已见颓势。2023年全球经济可能进一步陷入"滚动式衰退"，除中国外，全球经济实际增长预计将从2022年3%左右放缓至不到1%。

External demand may be the biggest variable for China's economic growth in 2023. Export growth has shown clear signs of weakening in recent months. The global economy may slide into a "rolling recession" in 2023, with real growth (excluding China) expected to slow from about 3% in 2022 to less than 1%.

全球贸易格局变化 | Changes in Global Trade Patterns

在中国三大出口目的地中，2023年仅有东盟经济增长有望略微改善。全球经济（除中国）名义增速仍可能超过7%，但价格效应不能掩盖外需走弱的现实。

Among China's top three export destinations, only ASEAN is expected to see slightly improved economic growth in 2023. The nominal growth rate of the global economy (excluding China) may still exceed 7%, but price effects cannot mask the weakening external demand.

地缘政治影响 | Geopolitical Impacts

美国对华芯片制裁的后续影响值得关注。2022年11月贸易数据显示，芯片及相关产品进出口增速出现大幅下降。芯片占中国进口15%，芯片及相关产品也占出口15%。

The ripple effects of U.S. chip sanctions against China warrant attention. November 2022 trade data showed a significant decline in the growth rate of chip-related imports and exports. Chips account for 15% of China's imports and 15% of exports.

中国出口的韧性 | Resilience of China's Exports

中国出口部门展现出强大韧性：
1. 深度融合、多元化的贸易网络
2. 完整复杂、多元化的产品结构
中国在全球贸易中的份额从2018年13%回升到2022年的14.4%。

China's export sector has demonstrated remarkable resilience:
1. Deeply integrated and diversified trade networks
2. Complete and complex product structure
China's share in global trade has rebounded from 13% in 2018 to 14.4% in 2022.

供应链优势 | Supply Chain Advantages

中国在解决工业供给侧问题上表现突出：
• 政策导致的供应链损伤基本修复
• 制造业成本优势持续
• 产业链外迁短期内不会加速

China excels in addressing industrial supply-side issues:
• Supply chain disruptions caused by policies have been largely repaired
• Manufacturing cost advantages persist
• Industrial chain relocation won't accelerate in the short term

2023年展望 | 2023 Outlook

预计2023年：
• 出口可能出现低个位数下滑
• 进口表现将好于出口
• 经常账户盈余可能从GDP的2.5%降至1%
• 净出口将拖累GDP增速近1个百分点

Projections for 2023:
• Exports may see a low single-digit decline
• Imports will perform better than exports
• Current account surplus may drop from 2.5% to 1% of GDP
• Net exports will drag GDP growth by nearly 1 percentage point

中国也许能够经受住全球衰退风险的冲击，但是稳外贸稳外资政策措施亦需全力以赴。

China may withstand the impact of global recession risks, but stabilizing foreign trade and investment requires full policy efforts.

（作者为花旗集团中国区首席经济学家；编辑：张威、袁满）

(The author is Chief China Economist at Citi; Editors: Zhang Wei, Yuan Man)