Skip to content
Next Next commit
Minor fixes
  • Loading branch information
HengchengZhang committed Jun 26, 2023
commit a1703f96c5ebe0dc7e3ffb84e3be6d2fd8178246
19 changes: 8 additions & 11 deletions lectures/business_cycle.md
Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
Expand Up @@ -20,7 +20,7 @@ In this lecture we review some empirical aspects of business cycles.

Business cycles are fluctuations in economic activity over time.

The include expansions (also called booms) and contractions (also called recessions).
These include expansions (also called booms) and contractions (also called recessions).

For our study, we will use economic indicators from the [World Bank](https://documents.worldbank.org/en/publication/documents-reports/api) and [FRED](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/).

Expand Down Expand Up @@ -413,12 +413,12 @@ The labor market recovered at an unprecedented rate after the shock in 2020-2021
In our {ref}`previous discussion<gdp_growth>`, we found that developed economies have had
relatively synchronized periods of recession.

At the same time, this synchronization does not appear in Argentina until the 2000s.
At the same time, this synchronization did not appear in Argentina until the 2000s.

Let's examine this trend further.

With slight modifications, we can use our previous function to draw a plot
that includes many countries
that includes multiple countries

```{code-cell} ipython3
---
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -561,7 +561,7 @@ business cycles are becoming more synchronized in 21st-century recessions.
However, emerging and less developed economies often experience more volatile
changes throughout the economic cycles.

Despite of the synchronization in GDP growth, the experience of individual countries during
Despite the synchronization in GDP growth, the experience of individual countries during
the recession often differs.

We use unemployment rate and the recovery of labor market conditions
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -597,7 +597,7 @@ plt.show()
We see that France, with its strong labor unions, typically experiences
relatively slow labor market recoveries after negative shocks.

We also notice that, Japan has a history of very low and stable unemployment rates.
We also notice that Japan has a history of very low and stable unemployment rates.


## Leading indicators and correlated factors
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -684,19 +684,18 @@ plt.show()

We see that

* consumer sentiment often remains high during during expansion and
* consumer sentiment often remains high during an expansion and
drops before a recession.
* there is a clear negative correlation between consumer sentiment and the CPI.

When the price of consumer commodities rises, consumer confidence diminishes.

This trend is more significant in the during [stagflation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stagflation).
This trend is more significant in the [stagflation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stagflation).



### Production


Real industrial output is highly correlated with recessions in the economy.

However, it is not a leading indicator, as the peak of contraction in production
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -777,7 +776,5 @@ ax = plot_series(private_credit, countries,
plt.show()
```


Note that the credit rises during economic expansion
Note that the credit rises during economic expansions
and stagnates or even contracts after recessions.