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Let $\mathbb{X}, \mathbb{Y} \subset \mathbb{R}^d$ be finite sets. Suppose random vectors $X \in \mathbb{X}$ and $Y \in \mathbb{Y}$ are sampled according to a joint distribution $\mathbb{P}_{XY}$. Additionally, define a random vector $\hat{Y}$, which has the same marginal distribution as $Y$, but is independent of $X$.

We know that the following inequality holds: $$ \mathbb{E}\left[X^\top Y - \mathbb{E}\left[X^\top \hat{Y} \mid X\right]\right]^2 \leq d \cdot \mathbb{E}\left[ \left(X^\top \hat{Y} - \mathbb{E}\left[X^\top \hat{Y} \mid X\right]\right)^2 \right], $$ which itself is a direct consequence of this inequality: $$ \mathbb{E}\left[X^\top Y\right]^2 \leq d \cdot \mathbb{E}\left[ \left(X^\top \hat{Y}\right)^2 \right]. $$ I think the following inequality also holds: $$ \mathbb{E}\left[|X^\top Y| - \mathbb{E}\left[|X^\top \hat{Y}| \mid X\right]\right]^2 \leq d \cdot \mathbb{E}\left[ \left(|X^\top \hat{Y}| - \mathbb{E}\left[|X^\top \hat{Y}| \mid X\right]\right)^2 \right], $$ but I can't prove it, so I'm looking for a proof!

P.s. I can provide the proof of the other inequalities if needed.

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  • $\begingroup$ It could indeed help if you provide proofs of your statements (or references to them, if available). $\endgroup$ Commented Sep 8, 2024 at 0:20
  • $\begingroup$ Let $h = E[Y], and V = E[X X^t]$ be invertible for simplicity. The LHS is $$E[X^t Y - E[X^t \hat Y | X ]]=E[X^t (Y - h)]\leq E[\|X\|_{V^{-1}}\|Y - h\|_V]\leq\sqrt{E[\|X\|_{V^{-1}}^2]E[\|\hat Y - h\|_V^2]}$$ Further $$E[\|X\|_{V^{-1}}^2]=E[tr(X^t E[X X^t]^{-1} X)]=tr(E[X X^t] E[X X^t]^{-1})= d.$$ Moreover, $$E[\|\hat Y - h\|_V^2]=E[(\hat Y - h)^t E[X X^t] (\hat Y - h)]=E[(\hat Y - h)^t X X^t (\hat Y - h)]=E[(X^t (\hat Y - h))^2]=E[(X^t \hat Y - E[X^t \hat Y | X])^2]$$ $\endgroup$ Commented Sep 8, 2024 at 8:03
  • $\begingroup$ I hope it's clear:) I didn't include the proof in the main question since from my experience long questions have significantly less chance for getting a response.. $\endgroup$ Commented Sep 8, 2024 at 8:05
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    $\begingroup$ I have something that may help. As the first proof start from the fact that $$\mathbb E[X^\top Y]^2\le d\mathbb E[(X^\top \hat Y)^2],$$ it may be useful to generalize it to the absolute value, getting $$\mathbb E[|X^\top Y|]^2\le d\mathbb E[(X^\top \hat Y)^2].$$ We can prove this by defining an auxiliary random vector, $Y'$ that is equal to $Y$ when $X^\top Y>0$ and $-Y$ otherwise. Applying the original inequality to $Y'$, we get the result. $\endgroup$ Commented Sep 23, 2024 at 22:59
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    $\begingroup$ Indeed, $|X^\top Y|=X^\top Y'$ almost surely. Moreover, as for any vector $v$ we have $(v^\top \hat Y')^2=(v^\top Y')^2=(v^\top Y)^2=(v^\top \hat Y)^2$, we have also $$\mathbb E[(X^\top \hat Y')^2]=\mathbb E[(X^\top \hat Y)^2]$$ $\endgroup$ Commented Sep 23, 2024 at 23:11

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