2023年中国外贸开局6.18万亿元：机遇与挑战并存
2023年前两个月中国外贸数据概览
根据中国海关总署3月7日发布的数据，2023年1-2月中国进出口总值达6.18万亿元人民币，同比微降0.8%。其中出口3.5万亿元（增长0.9%），进口2.68万亿元（下降2.9%），贸易顺差8103.2亿元（同比扩大16.2%）。
Key Statistics of China's Foreign Trade in Jan-Feb 2023
According to data released by China's General Administration of Customs on March 7, China's total import and export value reached 6.18 trillion yuan in the first two months of 2023, down 0.8% year-on-year. Exports stood at 3.5 trillion yuan (up 0.9%), imports at 2.68 trillion yuan (down 2.9%), with a trade surplus of 810.32 billion yuan (expanding 16.2%).
主要贸易伙伴表现
东盟成为中国第一大贸易伙伴（双边贸易总值9519.3亿元，增长9.6%），而中国对欧盟、美国、日本等传统市场的进出口均出现下降。机电产品仍是出口主力（2.03万亿元，增长0.4%），其中手机出口增长10.5%，汽车出口暴涨78.9%。
Performance of Major Trading Partners
ASEAN became China's largest trading partner (total bilateral trade value of 951.93 billion yuan, up 9.6%), while trade with traditional markets like EU, US and Japan declined. Mechanical and electrical products remained the major export items (2.03 trillion yuan, up 0.4%), with mobile phone exports growing 10.5% and auto exports surging 78.9%.
专家分析
东方金诚分析师李晓峰指出，中国出口下滑与全球贸易走弱趋势一致，但RCEP生效促进了对东盟出口增长。新能源汽车等产业升级显著提升了出口竞争力。光大银行周茂华认为，随着海外通胀趋缓和加息周期结束，中国外贸有望在三、四季度改善。
Expert Analysis
Li Xiaofeng from Orient Jincheng noted China's export decline aligns with global trade weakness, but RCEP implementation boosted exports to ASEAN. Industrial upgrading, especially in NEVs, significantly enhanced export competitiveness. Zhou Maohua from Everbright Bank expects China's foreign trade to improve in Q3-Q4 as overseas inflation eases and rate hikes end.
2023年外贸展望
商务部部长王文涛表示，2023年中国外贸面临外需减弱、世界经济衰退风险上升等挑战，将采取"稳规模、优结构"的策略。尽管形势严峻，但随着企业积极开拓海外市场，中国外贸仍具发展潜力。
2023 Foreign Trade Outlook
Commerce Minister Wang Wentao stated China's foreign trade faces challenges like weakening external demand and rising global recession risks in 2023, adopting a strategy of "stabilizing scale and optimizing structure". Despite severe situation, active overseas market expansion by enterprises maintains China's foreign trade potential.
