2024年香港出口展望：电子产品将带动整体出口温和复苏
图/ic 文 | 商务部国际贸易经济合作研究院对外贸易研究所 齐冠钧 刘娅
Photo/ic By Qi Guanjun & Liu Ya, Foreign Trade Research Institute, Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation
在香港和全球经济经历了较预期艰难的一年之后，随着2023年将近尾声，有迹象显示最坏情况已经过去，出口表现于来年大有机会复苏，香港方面预期出口主要由占最大比重的电子产品复苏所带动，一般预期行业将于2024年迎来复苏。预计香港出口于2024年将增长约4%至6%。
After a tougher-than-expected year for Hong Kong and the global economy, as 2023 draws to a close, there are signs that the worst may be over, with export performance likely to recover next year. Hong Kong expects exports to be primarily driven by the recovery of electronics, which accounts for the largest proportion, and the industry is generally expected to rebound in 2024. Hong Kong's exports are projected to grow by approximately 4% to 6% in 2024.
2023年的经济环境严峻，2024年经济复苏的预期备受关注。香港出口于2022年下跌8.6%之后，于2023年1至10月再减少11%，原因是通胀上升、利率高企以及地缘政治紧张局势打击全球需求。
The economic environment in 2023 has been challenging, with expectations for recovery in 2024 drawing significant attention. Following an 8.6% decline in Hong Kong's exports in 2022, exports fell by another 11% from January to October 2023 due to rising inflation, high interest rates, and geopolitical tensions dampening global demand.
在亚洲区的贸易伙伴之中，香港主要出口电子产品及半制成品，半导体行业持续多时的下行走势令区内贸易更加停滞不前。而且，香港与内地陆路跨境运输的运力持续受限，限制了2023年大部分时间经香港转运的货物流量。
Among Asian trading partners, Hong Kong primarily exports electronics and semi-finished products. The prolonged downturn in the semiconductor industry has further stagnated regional trade. Additionally, the continued constraints on cross-border land transport capacity between Hong Kong and mainland China have limited cargo flows transiting through Hong Kong for most of 2023.
电子产品复苏成关键
Electronics Recovery as Key Driver
值得注意的是，电子产品领域的复苏对香港出口表现至关重要，近期公布的指标均显示环球半导体业或许已到达转折点，但预计到2024年下半年才会展现明显的回升势头。
Notably, the recovery in the electronics sector is crucial for Hong Kong's export performance. Recent indicators suggest that the global semiconductor industry may have reached a turning point, though a significant rebound is expected only in the second half of 2024.
香港与亚洲许多主要市场(包括中国内地、东盟、印度、韩国)的贸易往来主要以半制成品和其他工业产品为主，合计约占2023年1至10月对亚洲区出口的87%。这些产品主要涉及工业加工生产的原料，生产原料的需求与区内制造业活动水平息息相关。
Hong Kong's trade with many major Asian markets (including mainland China, ASEAN, India, and South Korea) mainly consists of semi-finished and other industrial products, accounting for about 87% of exports to Asia from January to October 2023. These products primarily involve raw materials for industrial processing, with demand closely tied to regional manufacturing activity levels.
2024年展望：温和增长4%-6%
2024 Outlook: Moderate Growth of 4%-6%
展望2024年，预期香港出口商在短期内将继续面临挑战，尤其是主力营销消费品出口至多个主要市场的出口商。美国、中国内地及东盟国家的最新制造业采购经理指数仍徘徊在50左右，而欧元区的数字则持续远低于50，深陷紧缩区间。
Looking ahead to 2024, Hong Kong exporters are expected to continue facing challenges in the short term, particularly those focused on consumer goods exports to major markets. The latest manufacturing PMIs for the US, mainland China, and ASEAN countries remain around 50, while the Eurozone's figure remains well below 50, stuck in contraction territory.
整体而言，亚洲区内的电子产品相关贸易会显著复苏，带动香港的出口表现于2024年恢复增长，增幅介于4%至6%，下半年的反弹势头更加明显。
Overall, electronics-related trade in Asia is expected to recover significantly, driving Hong Kong's export growth to between 4% and 6% in 2024, with a more pronounced rebound in the second half of the year.
编辑 陈莉 校对 柳宝庆
Edited by Chen Li, Proofread by Liu Baoqing
