央行上调远期售汇风险准备金至20%：外贸企业汇率避险指南
面对近期人民币汇率波动，中国人民银行继下调外汇存款准备金率后再次出手稳汇率。9月26日央行宣布，自2022年9月28日起将远期售汇业务的外汇风险准备金率从0上调至20%。
Facing recent RMB exchange rate fluctuations, the People's Bank of China has taken another measure to stabilize the exchange rate after cutting the foreign exchange reserve requirement ratio. On September 26, the PBOC announced that it will raise the foreign exchange risk reserve ratio for forward forex sale business from 0% to 20% effective September 28, 2022.
远期售汇业务如何帮助企业避险？
How Can Forward Forex Sale Help Companies Hedge Risks?
远期售汇是外贸企业常用的汇率避险工具，企业可与银行签订协议，锁定未来售汇的汇率。例如出口企业预计3个月后将收到1000万美元货款，若担心人民币升值造成汇兑损失，可通过远期售汇按约定汇率（如6.7）结汇，无论到期时市场汇率如何波动，都能确保获得6700万元人民币。
Forward forex sale is a common hedging tool for foreign trade companies. By signing agreements with banks, businesses can lock in future exchange rates. For example, an exporter expecting to receive $10 million in three months can use forward forex sale to exchange at a predetermined rate (e.g. 6.7), ensuring they get 67 million RMB regardless of market fluctuations.
准备金率上调的市场影响
Market Impact of Reserve Ratio Hike
此次调整意味着银行开展1000万美元远期售汇业务需计提200万美元准备金（存放央行一年无息）。这将：
- 增加银行资金成本 → 提高远期购汇报价
- 抑制非理性购汇需求 → 平衡外汇市场供需
The adjustment means banks need to set aside $2 million reserve (interest-free at PBOC for one year) for every $10 million forward forex sale. This will:
- Increase banks' capital costs → Raise forward forex purchase quotes
- Curb irrational forex demand → Balance forex market supply/demand
专家解读与建议
Expert Analysis and Recommendations
管涛（中银证券）：历史证明上调准备金率是应对汇率波动的有效宏观审慎工具。
周茂华（光大银行）：新规通过市场化手段增加远期购汇成本，防止"羊群效应"导致市场非理性波动。
温彬（民生银行）建议企业：树立汇率风险中性理念，善用衍生工具管理风险。
Guan Tao (BOC Securities): History proves raising reserve ratio is an effective macro-prudential tool for exchange rate fluctuations.
Zhou Maohua (CEB): The new rule increases forward forex costs through market means, preventing "herd behavior" from causing irrational market volatility.
Wen Bin (CMBC) advises companies to: adopt exchange rate risk-neutral concepts and utilize derivatives for risk management.
人民币汇率现状与展望
Current RMB Status and Outlook
9月26日中间价报7.0298，创2020年7月以来新低。但相比其他主要货币：
| 优势 | 数据支撑 |
|---|---|
| 贬值幅度最小 | 8月结汇率71%（高于月均3个百分点） |
| 经济基本面稳固 | Q3 GDP预计显著回升，通胀可控 |
On September 26, the central parity rate hit 7.0298, lowest since July 2020. But compared to other major currencies:
| Advantages | Data Support |
|---|---|
| Smallest depreciation | August settlement rate 71% (3% above average) |
| Solid economic fundamentals | Q3 GDP expected to rebound significantly |
外贸企业应对建议：建立完善汇率风险管理机制，结合远期、期权等工具组合避险，避免单边押注汇率走势。
Suggestions for exporters: Establish comprehensive exchange rate risk management systems, use combinations of forwards/options for hedging, and avoid one-way bets on exchange trends.
