TikTok欧美市场生死局：2024跨境卖家如何应对"不卖就禁"政策？

TikTok欧美市场生死局：2024跨境卖家如何应对"不卖就禁"政策？

TikTok's Life-or-Death Situation in US Market: How Cross-border Sellers Should Respond to "Divest or Ban" Policy in 2024

每经记者：杨昕怡 每经编辑：陈俊杰

Reporter: Yang Xinyi Editor: Chen Junjie

TikTok在美国的生存前景愈发黯淡。当地时间12月6日，美国哥伦比亚特区巡回上诉法院作出裁决，维持美国总统拜登签署的一项法案，要求字节跳动在2025年1月19日之前剥离TikTok，否则该应用将在美国被禁。

TikTok's survival prospects in the US are becoming increasingly bleak. On December 6 local time, the US Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit ruled to uphold a bill signed by President Biden, requiring ByteDance to divest TikTok by January 19, 2025, or face a ban in the US.

对此，TikTok已向美国联邦上诉法院提交紧急动议，要求在上诉过程中暂停禁令。尽管面临"不卖就禁"的最后期限，TikTok美区商家们的生意却依旧红火。

In response, TikTok has filed an emergency motion with the US federal appeals court, requesting a stay of the ban during the appeal process. Despite the "divest or ban" deadline, TikTok merchants in the US continue to thrive.

美区"黑五"热卖：GMV增长超3倍

US "Black Friday" Boom: GMV Grows Over 3 Times

官方数据显示，今年"黑五"期间，TikTok美区支付GMV较去年增长超3倍，"黑五"当日销售额突破1亿美元，创下历年大促新高。

Official data shows that during this year's "Black Friday," TikTok's US GMV grew more than 3 times compared to last year, with single-day sales exceeding $100 million, setting a new record for annual promotions.

"从去年开始，这些（关于封禁TikTok的）新闻不断出现，但大家仍然在卖。"TikTok美区商家叶凡（化名）表示，专业卖家都有对抗平台风险的经验。"哪怕这个平台不能卖，也能去别的平台把货卖掉。"

"Since last year, these (news about banning TikTok) have been constantly emerging, but everyone is still selling," said Ye Fan (pseudonym), a TikTok merchant in the US, noting that professional sellers have experience in dealing with platform risks. "Even if this platform can't sell, we can still sell goods on other platforms."

TikTok的欧洲扩张：西班牙站点上线

TikTok's European Expansion: Spanish Site Launched

为分散风险，TikTok正在寻找更多"后路"。当地时间12月10日，TikTok商店在西班牙正式上线。这是继2023年、今年9月临时叫停后，TikTok近年中的第三次欧洲市场尝试。

To diversify risks, TikTok is seeking more "backup plans." On December 10 local time, TikTok Shop officially launched in Spain. This marks TikTok's third attempt at the European market in recent years, following temporary suspensions in 2023 and September this year.

市场分析机构Mordor Intelligence的报告显示，2024年欧洲电商市场规模将达到6473.4亿美元，并以8%的复合年增长率持续增长。

According to Mordor Intelligence, Europe's e-commerce market size will reach $647.34 billion in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 8%.

特朗普因素：TikTok的最后希望？

The Trump Factor: TikTok's Last Hope?

"我永远不会封禁TikTok。"在今年美国大选期间，美国当选总统特朗普曾以此向年轻选民拉票。专家表示："如果TikTok上诉拖延到特朗普上台，对TikTok还是有翻盘的希望。"

"I will never ban TikTok," said President-elect Trump during the US election campaign to appeal to young voters. Experts say: "If TikTok's appeal delays until Trump takes office, there is still hope for a turnaround."

上海段和段律师事务所刘春泉律师认为："重点还是要考虑上诉到美国最高法院，因为最高法院大法官相对理性，有法治根基。"

Attorney Liu Chunquan from Shanghai Duan & Duan Law Firm believes: "The focus should still be on appealing to the US Supreme Court, as Supreme Court justices are relatively rational and have a foundation in the rule of law."

最后期限正在一步步逼近，TikTok在美国的"生死局"能否有最后翻盘？2024年将成为关键一年。

As the deadline approaches step by step, can TikTok achieve a final turnaround in its US "life-or-death situation"? 2024 will be a crucial year.