中国钢材出口创历史新高 但面临贸易摩擦与碳关税双重挑战
北京报道 - 中国钢铁工业协会最新数据显示，2023年中国钢材出口量预计突破9000万吨，创下自2014-2016年以来的历史第二高位。与此同时，钢材进口量约为760万吨。
Beijing Report - According to the latest data from the China Iron and Steel Association, China's steel exports are expected to exceed 90 million tons in 2023, marking the second-highest level in history since 2014-2016. Meanwhile, steel imports were about 7.6 million tons.
中钢协警告称，随着出口规模扩大，贸易摩擦风险正在加剧。2023年全球已有5个国家对中国钢铁产品发起6起贸易救济调查，墨西哥更是在年底宣布对部分中国钢铁产品征收近80%的高额关税。
The China Iron and Steel Association warned that with the expansion of export scale, the risk of trade friction is intensifying. In 2023, five countries have initiated six trade remedy investigations against Chinese steel products, with Mexico announcing at the end of the year the imposition of nearly 80% high tariffs on some Chinese steel products.
出口增长原因分析 | Analysis of Export Growth Reasons
兰格钢铁研究中心分析师王国清指出："中国钢材出口增长主要得益于物美价廉的产品优势和旺盛的国际市场需求。人民币适度贬值也提升了出口竞争力。"
Wang Guoqing, an analyst at Lange Steel Research Center, pointed out: "The growth of China's steel exports is mainly due to the advantages of high-quality and low-cost products and strong international market demand. The moderate depreciation of the RMB has also enhanced export competitiveness."
2023年主要出口钢材品种包括：
- 碳素结构钢 | Carbon Structural Steel
- 低合金高强度结构钢 | High Strength Low Alloy Structural Steel
- 优质碳素结构钢 | High Quality Carbon Structural Steel
- 合金结构钢 | Alloy Structural Steel
未来出口面临挑战 | Future Export Challenges
分析师预测，2024年中国钢材出口可能下降约10%，主要由于：
- 全球钢铁生产恢复 | Recovery of global steel production
- 海外供需趋于平衡 | Overseas supply and demand tend to balance
- 贸易保护主义抬头 | Rise of trade protectionism
特别值得关注的是欧盟碳边境调节机制(CBAM)的实施。该机制要求进口商支付产品碳排放费用，可能导致中国对欧钢材出口成本增加4%-6%。
Particular attention should be paid to the implementation of the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). The mechanism requires importers to pay for product carbon emissions, which may increase the cost of China's steel exports to Europe by 4%-6%.
中钢协人士表示："虽然目前CBAM对中国钢铁出口影响有限，但我们必须警惕其覆盖范围扩大和更多国家效仿的风险。"
A representative of the China Iron and Steel Association said: "Although the current impact of CBAM on China's steel exports is limited, we must be vigilant about the risk of its expanding coverage and more countries following suit."
