央行上调外汇风险准备金率至20%：外贸企业汇率避险指南
面对近期人民币汇率波动，中国人民银行再次出手稳定外汇市场。9月26日，央行宣布自2022年9月28日起，将远期售汇业务的外汇风险准备金率从0上调至20%。这是继下调外汇存款准备金率后，央行采取的又一重要举措。
In response to recent RMB exchange rate fluctuations, the People's Bank of China (PBOC) has taken another measure to stabilize the foreign exchange market. On September 26, the PBOC announced that it would raise the foreign exchange risk reserve ratio for forward sales from 0% to 20% effective September 28, 2022. This follows the earlier reduction of the foreign exchange deposit reserve ratio.
远期售汇业务是外贸企业常用的汇率避险工具。企业通过与银行签订协议，可以锁定未来售汇的汇率，有效规避汇率波动风险。当人民币出现明显升值或贬值趋势时，这项业务能帮助企业提前锁定购汇成本，实现货币保值。
Forward sale business is a common exchange rate hedging tool for foreign trade enterprises. By signing agreements with banks, companies can lock in future exchange rates and effectively avoid exchange rate fluctuation risks. When the RMB shows obvious appreciation or depreciation trends, this business can help enterprises lock in foreign exchange purchase costs in advance to achieve currency value preservation.
央行此次调整将直接影响银行的业务成本。以1000万美元的远期售汇业务为例，银行需要计提200万美元的外汇风险准备金。这将促使银行提高购汇报价，从而抑制远期购汇需求，调节市场供需平衡。
The PBOC's adjustment will directly affect banks' business costs. Taking a $10 million forward sale business as an example, banks need to set aside $2 million in foreign exchange risk reserves. This will prompt banks to raise their foreign exchange purchase quotes, thereby curbing forward purchase demand and regulating market supply and demand balance.
专家观点：中银证券全球首席经济学家管涛指出，上调外汇风险准备金率是应对汇率波动的有效宏观审慎措施。光大银行周茂华认为，此举增加了企业远期购汇成本，避免市场非理性波动，同时释放了人民币汇率"稳"的信号。
Expert Views: Guan Tao, global chief economist at BOC Securities, pointed out that raising the foreign exchange risk reserve ratio is an effective macro-prudential measure to deal with exchange rate fluctuations. Zhou Maohua of Everbright Bank believes this move increases corporate forward purchase costs, avoids irrational market fluctuations, and signals RMB exchange rate stability.
2022年以来，受美联储加息影响，美元持续走强。9月26日，人民币对美元中间价报7.0298，创2020年7月以来新低。但专家强调，人民币不存在持续贬值的基础：三季度GDP预计明显回升，通胀温和可控，国际收支状况良好。
Since 2022, the US dollar has continued to strengthen due to Federal Reserve rate hikes. On September 26, the RMB central parity rate against the US dollar was 7.0298, the lowest since July 2020. However, experts emphasize that there is no basis for continued RMB depreciation: Q3 GDP is expected to rebound significantly, inflation remains moderate and controllable, and the balance of payments is in good condition.
企业建议：民生银行温彬建议外贸企业树立汇率风险中性理念，积极利用衍生工具管理汇率风险。数据显示，8月结汇率达71%，市场主体呈现"逢高结汇、逢低购汇"的理性交易模式。
Corporate Advice: Wen Bin of China Minsheng Bank recommends that foreign trade enterprises establish a exchange rate risk neutral concept and actively use derivative tools to manage exchange rate risks. Data shows that the settlement rate reached 71% in August, with market participants showing a rational trading pattern of "selling high and buying low".
