外贸出口断崖式下跌：房地产能否再次成为经济救星？
外贸出口遭遇"断崖式下跌"
Foreign trade exports experience "precipitous decline"
2023年开年，中国外贸出口数据令人震惊。数据显示，中国2023年春季外贸订单总体下降了40%，其中传统产品下降50%以上。更令人担忧的是，2022年10月-12月，以美元计价的中国出口贸易额连续三个月同比下降，降幅分别为0.3%、8.7%和9.9%。
At the beginning of 2023, China's foreign trade export data is shocking. Statistics show that China's spring foreign trade orders in 2023 decreased by 40% overall, with traditional products dropping by more than 50%. More worryingly, from October to December 2022, China's export trade value in US dollar terms declined year-on-year for three consecutive months, with decreases of 0.3%, 8.7% and 9.9% respectively.
香港作为内地最大贸易中转口岸，其外贸数据更具警示意义。2023年1月，香港对外贸易出现了70年来最大的跌幅，其中出口下跌36.7%，进口下跌30.2%。
As the largest trade transit port for mainland China, Hong Kong's foreign trade data is even more alarming. In January 2023, Hong Kong's foreign trade recorded its largest decline in 70 years, with exports falling by 36.7% and imports dropping by 30.2%.
港口空箱堆积如山
Empty containers pile up at ports
深圳盐田港、上海港、宁波港等主要港口都出现了集装箱空置的情况。据媒体报道，上海港码头的空箱甚至堆到了太仓。自2022年下半年以来，上海出口集装箱运价指数已直线下跌超80%，集装箱租金从一两千元跌至三位数。
Major ports including Shenzhen's Yantian Port, Shanghai Port and Ningbo Port are all experiencing container vacancies. According to media reports, empty containers at Shanghai Port have even piled up in Taicang. Since the second half of 2022, the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index has plummeted by more than 80%, with container rental prices dropping from 1,000-2,000 yuan to three-digit figures.
外贸工厂遭遇"订单荒"
Foreign trade factories face "order drought"
长三角、珠三角的外贸工厂普遍反映订单锐减。昌硕科技、立讯等代工厂已暂停招聘，富士康也提高了招聘门槛。深圳、东莞等城市街头出现了大量待业人员，被网友称为"三和大神"。
Foreign trade factories in the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta regions generally report sharp declines in orders. Contract manufacturers like Changshuo Technology and Luxshare have suspended recruitment, while Foxconn has raised its hiring standards. Large numbers of unemployed people have appeared on the streets of cities like Shenzhen and Dongguan, dubbed "Sanhe gods" by netizens.
四大原因导致出口下滑
Four major reasons for export decline
- 全球经济衰退：三年疫情叠加俄乌冲突，美联储加息导致世界经济利空不断
- 贸易战后遗症：美国持续对中国商品加征关税，中国已降至美国第三大贸易伙伴
- 供应链转移：日本、韩国企业加速将产能转移至东南亚，越南外贸额创新高
- 美国制造业回流：自动化工厂使美国制造业竞争力提升
- Global economic recession: Three years of pandemic combined with the Russia-Ukraine conflict and Fed rate hikes have created continuous negative factors for the world economy
- Aftermath of trade war: The US continues to impose additional tariffs on Chinese goods, with China dropping to become the US's third largest trading partner
- Supply chain relocation: Japanese and South Korean companies are accelerating production capacity transfer to Southeast Asia, with Vietnam's foreign trade hitting record highs
- US manufacturing reshoring: Automated factories are enhancing US manufacturing competitiveness
大基建+房地产再次扛起经济大旗
Large-scale infrastructure + real estate once again shoulder economic responsibilities
面对出口下滑，各地纷纷启动大规模基建投资。浙江省已启动6808亿元投资项目，计划全年完成1万亿元投资。全国已有14个省市公布超万亿投资计划，河南省更是直奔2万亿目标。
Faced with declining exports, various regions have launched large-scale infrastructure investments. Zhejiang Province has initiated 680.8 billion yuan in investment projects, planning to complete 1 trillion yuan in investment for the whole year. Nationwide, 14 provinces and cities have announced investment plans exceeding 1 trillion yuan, with Henan Province aiming for 2 trillion yuan.
与此同时，房地产刺激政策持续加码。1月份新增贷款中95.5%流向企事业单位，主要投入大基建相关产业。M2同比增长12.6%，创2016年以来新高，显示货币政策持续宽松。
Meanwhile, real estate stimulus policies continue to intensify. In January, 95.5% of new loans went to enterprises and institutions, mainly invested in industries related to large-scale infrastructure. M2 grew by 12.6% year-on-year, hitting a new high since 2016, indicating continued loose monetary policy.
2023年经济展望
2023 economic outlook
在出口下滑、消费乏力的背景下，要实现5.5%以上的GDP增速目标，大基建和房地产将发挥关键作用。这一模式与2008年金融危机后的应对策略高度相似，但能否再次奏效仍需观察。
Against the backdrop of declining exports and weak consumption, large-scale infrastructure and real estate will play key roles in achieving the GDP growth target of over 5.5%. This model is highly similar to the response strategy after the 2008 financial crisis, but whether it will work again remains to be seen.
