2024年香港出口展望：电子产品将带动整体出口温和复苏

2024年香港出口展望：电子产品将带动整体出口温和复苏

Hong Kong Export Outlook 2024: Electronics to Drive Moderate Recovery in Overall Exports

随着2023年接近尾声，香港出口在经历了艰难的一年后，有望在2024年迎来复苏。预计电子产品将成为主要驱动力，带动香港出口实现4%至6%的增长。

As 2023 draws to a close, Hong Kong's exports, after a challenging year, are expected to recover in 2024. Electronics are projected to be the main driver, leading to a 4% to 6% growth in Hong Kong's exports.

2023年，香港出口面临严峻挑战。继2022年下跌8.6%后，2023年1至10月再减少11%，主要受全球通胀、高利率及地缘政治紧张影响。

In 2023, Hong Kong's exports faced severe challenges. After an 8.6% decline in 2022, exports fell by another 11% from January to October 2023, primarily due to global inflation, high interest rates, and geopolitical tensions.

电子产品占香港出口的70%以上，其复苏对整体出口至关重要。近期数据显示，全球半导体行业可能已触底反弹，预计2024年下半年将迎来明显回升。

Electronics account for over 70% of Hong Kong's exports, making their recovery crucial for overall export performance. Recent data suggests that the global semiconductor industry may have bottomed out, with a significant rebound expected in the second half of 2024.

香港对中国内地、东盟、印度等亚洲市场的出口占比较大，2023年表现疲软。但随着需求释放，2024年有望改善。例如，贵重珠宝出口因婚礼等活动恢复已增长20.8%。

Hong Kong's exports to mainland China, ASEAN, India, and other Asian markets account for a significant share but performed weakly in 2023. However, with pent-up demand, 2024 could see improvement. For example, precious jewelry exports have already grown by 20.8% due to the resumption of weddings and celebrations.

全球经济仍面临挑战，但香港出口有望领先复苏。世界贸易组织预测，2024年全球商品贸易量将增长3.3%，香港将从中受益。

The global economy still faces challenges, but Hong Kong's exports are poised for an early recovery. The WTO predicts global merchandise trade volume to grow by 3.3% in 2024, from which Hong Kong stands to benefit.

编辑：陈莉 | 校对：柳宝庆

Editor: Chen Li | Proofreader: Liu Baoqing