钢材市场周度分析：建筑材拖累反弹 下游需求仍显疲软
核心观点：本周钢材市场虽现反弹迹象，但受建筑钢材拖累，整体市场仍面临较大下行风险。
Key Insight:While the steel market showed signs of recovery this week, dragged down by construction materials, the overall market still faces significant downside risks.
价格走势：本周钢材价格出现上涨，带动黑色原料连续上涨。至周五收盘，螺纹主力2405合约收于3612元/吨，周度环比上涨122元/吨；热卷主力2405合约收于3822元/吨，周度环比上涨130元/吨。
Price Trends: Steel prices rose this week, driving continuous increases in black raw materials. By Friday's close, the rebar main 2405 contract settled at 3,612 yuan/ton, up 122 yuan/ton week-on-week; the hot-rolled coil main 2405 contract settled at 3,822 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan/ton week-on-week.
市场交易：全国建材成交量较前一周回升明显，市场投机情绪随之释放，但刚需仍偏弱。
Market Trading: National construction materials trading volume rebounded significantly compared to the previous week, releasing speculative sentiment, but actual demand remains weak.
供应情况：本周247家钢厂高炉开工率微增至76.9%，高炉炼铁产能利用率达到82.79%，钢厂盈利率上升至22.94%。日均铁水产量环比增加0.57万吨，但同比减少18.43万吨。
Supply Situation: This week, the blast furnace operating rate at 247 steel mills increased slightly to 76.9%, with capacity utilization reaching 82.79%. Mill profitability rose to 22.94%. Daily pig iron output increased by 5,700 tons week-on-week but decreased by 184,300 tons year-on-year.
消费数据：钢联数据显示五大材总体表需合计913万吨，环比上周增加83万吨。螺纹表需246万吨，环比上周增加34万吨；热卷表需333万吨，环比上周增加18万吨。
Consumption Data: Mysteel data shows apparent demand for five major steel products totaled 9.13 million tons, up 830,000 tons week-on-week. Rebar apparent demand was 2.46 million tons, up 340,000 tons; hot-rolled coil apparent demand was 3.33 million tons, up 180,000 tons.
库存变化：本周五大材总体库存下降至2441万吨，较上周减少65万吨。螺纹库存1290万吨，周度环比下降35万吨；热卷库存432万吨，周度环比下降14万吨。
Inventory Changes: Total inventory for five major steel products fell to 24.41 million tons this week, down 650,000 tons from last week. Rebar inventory was 12.9 million tons, down 350,000 tons week-on-week; hot-rolled coil inventory was 4.32 million tons, down 140,000 tons.
市场展望：总体来看，钢材市场受到前期原料下跌和消费环比改善的提振，但黑色产业链矛盾未得到根本改善。建筑材产销存表现不佳，钢材季节性消费低于往年同期，加之钢厂高库存压制，市场仍面临较大向下修复风险。
Market Outlook: Overall, the steel market was boosted by previous raw material price declines and sequential consumption improvements, but fundamental contradictions in the black industry chain remain unresolved. Poor performance in construction materials production, sales and inventory, coupled with seasonal consumption below historical levels and high mill inventories, suggests the market still faces significant downward correction risks.
风险提示：投资者需关注钢厂检修、需求走弱程度、钢材出口和钢厂利润等因素。
Risk Warning: Investors should monitor mill maintenance schedules, degree of demand weakening, steel exports and mill profitability.
