中国7月进出口额3.46万亿元保持高位 专家预计四季度有望反弹
每日经济新闻记者 张怀水 | 编辑 陈旭
NBD Reporter Zhang Huaishui | Editor Chen Xu
8月8日，海关总署公布数据显示，今年前7个月我国进出口总值23.55万亿元人民币，同比增长0.4%。其中出口13.47万亿元，增长1.5%；进口10.08万亿元，下降1.1%。
On August 8, customs data showed China's total import-export value reached 23.55 trillion yuan in the first seven months, up 0.4% year-on-year. Exports grew 1.5% to 13.47 trillion yuan while imports fell 1.1% to 10.08 trillion yuan.
特别值得注意的是，7月单月进出口3.46万亿元，虽同比下降8.3%，但仍处于历史同期较高水平，较2019年同期增长25.7%。
Notably, July's import-export volume reached 3.46 trillion yuan, down 8.3% year-on-year but remaining at historically high levels for the period - 25.7% higher than July 2019.
高基数效应明显
High Base Effect Evident
东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青指出，去年疫情后出口基数较高是7月数据下滑的主因。同时海外经济下行导致外需走弱，特别是对美欧日等发达经济体出口下降明显。
Wang Qing, chief macro analyst at Oriental Jincheng, noted last year's high post-pandemic export base was the main reason for July's decline. Meanwhile, overseas economic slowdown weakened demand, particularly for exports to developed economies like the US, EU and Japan.
汽车出口表现亮眼
Standout Auto Exports
前7个月汽车出口金额同比大增118.5%，7月单月增长83.26%。新能源车表现尤为突出，"新三样"（电动载人汽车、锂电池、太阳能电池）合计出口增长61.6%。
Auto export value surged 118.5% in the first seven months, with July alone up 83.26%. New energy vehicles performed exceptionally well, with the "new trio" (electric passenger vehicles, lithium batteries and solar cells) seeing combined export growth of 61.6%.
专家展望：中国世贸组织研究会副会长霍建国预计，随着稳外贸政策发力及去年四季度基数降低，出口有望反弹，全年进出口正增长可能性较大。
Expert outlook: Huo Jianguo, vice president of the China Society for WTO Studies, expects exports to rebound as trade stabilization policies take effect and Q4 2022's lower base kicks in, predicting likely full-year import-export growth.
