回头客多的SEM付费推广是真的吗？5月外贸数据深度解析

回头客多的SEM付费推广是真的吗？5月外贸数据深度解析

Is SEM Paid Promotion with High Repeat Customers Real? In-depth Analysis of May Foreign Trade Data

1. 出口超预期的主要原因 / 1. Key Reasons for Exceeding Export Expectations

1.1 稳外贸成效显著 / 1.1 Remarkable Results from Stabilizing Foreign Trade

5月份我国出口3082.5亿美元，环比增长346亿美元，同比大幅增长16.9%。这一方面得益于稳外贸政策的显著成效，另一方面也反映出外需仍保持较高水平。

China's exports reached $308.25 billion in May, a month-on-month increase of $3.46 billion and a significant year-on-year growth of 16.9%. This is attributed to the remarkable results of foreign trade stabilization policies and reflects that external demand remains at a relatively high level.

1.2 外需仍处高位 / 1.2 External Demand Remains High

欧美制造业PMI数据显示外需仍在扩张区间，韩国出口同比增长21.3%，与美国需求保持强劲的趋势一致。同时，出口价格上涨也推动了出口增速的回升。

The PMI data of European and American manufacturing industries show that external demand remains in the expansion range. South Korea's exports increased by 21.3% year-on-year, consistent with the trend of strong demand in the United States. Meanwhile, rising export prices also contributed to the recovery of export growth.

2. 城市解封助力进口增速回正 / 2. Urban Unlocking Helps Import Growth Return to Positive

5月份我国进口同比增长4.1%，主要得益于多地逐步解封后内需的初步修复。出行数据好转，汽车消费和房地产销售也出现回暖迹象。

China's imports grew by 4.1% year-on-year in May, mainly due to the initial recovery of domestic demand after the gradual unlocking of many areas. Travel data improved, and car consumption and real estate sales also showed signs of recovery.

3. 人民币汇率贬值趋势未结束 / 3. The Depreciation Trend of RMB Has Not Ended

在美联储加息周期持续的背景下，人民币汇率仍面临贬值压力。中美利差扩大和出口增速可能回落将进一步加剧这一趋势。

Against the backdrop of the ongoing Fed rate hike cycle, the RMB exchange rate still faces depreciation pressure. The widening China-US interest rate differential and potential slowdown in export growth will further exacerbate this trend.

4. 风险提示 / 4. Risk Warning

国际大宗商品价格波动、美联储货币政策收紧、疫情反复以及信用事件集中爆发等风险因素需要密切关注。

Risk factors such as fluctuations in international commodity prices, tightening of Fed monetary policy, recurring epidemics, and concentrated credit events need to be closely monitored.