建筑钢材需求疲软 螺纹钢市场进入寻底阶段

建筑钢材需求疲软 螺纹钢市场进入寻底阶段

Weak Demand in Construction Steel Market Pushes Rebar Prices to Bottom

最新市场动态：4月3日螺纹钢期货价格呈现冲高回落走势，主力2410合约收报3462元/吨，跌幅1.4%。现货市场方面，全国主要城市螺纹钢均价上涨22元至3613元/吨。

Latest Market Trends: On April 3, rebar futures prices showed a pattern of rising and then falling, with the main 2410 contract closing at 3,462 yuan/ton, down 1.4%. In the spot market, the average price of rebar in major cities nationwide rose by 22 yuan to 3,613 yuan/ton.

核心问题分析：

Core Issues Analysis:

1. 需求端疲软：建筑钢材需求显著下滑，1-2月新开工面积同比下降近30%。基建用钢需求因资金到位缓慢而缺席，出口订单也因海外钢价下跌而转差。

1. Weak Demand Side: Demand for construction steel has declined significantly, with newly started construction area in January-February down nearly 30% year-on-year. Infrastructure steel demand is absent due to slow capital availability, while export orders have deteriorated due to falling overseas steel prices.

2. 供应端收缩：最新螺纹钢周度产量为209.74万吨，农历同比下降31%。钢厂复产意愿低迷，电炉生产维持在低时长运行。

2. Supply Side Contraction: The latest weekly rebar production was 2.0974 million tons, down 31% year-on-year in lunar calendar terms. Steel mills show low willingness to resume production, with electric furnace operations maintained at low operating hours.

3. 库存压力：螺纹钢总库存约1218.45万吨，厂库积压严重。今年累库时间早、周期长，反映出需求疲软态势。

3. Inventory Pressure: Total rebar inventory is about 12.1845 million tons, with serious accumulation at steel mills. This year's inventory accumulation started early and lasted long, reflecting weak demand.

专家观点：

Expert Opinions:

• 一德期货马琳："今年需求可能是时间后移，若4月资金顺利下发，5月或形成需求回补高峰"

• Yide Futures Ma Lin: "This year's demand may be delayed in time. If funds are smoothly distributed in April, May may see a peak in demand replenishment"

• 光大期货邱跃成："二季度或将呈现先抑后扬走势，继续下跌空间已经不大"

• Everbright Futures Qiu Yuecheng: "The second quarter may show a trend of first falling and then rising, with limited room for further decline"

后市展望：

Market Outlook:

短期来看，黑色系商品仍以震荡偏弱格局为主。策略层面建议：

In the short term, black commodities will mainly show a weak and volatile pattern. Strategic recommendations:

1. 螺纹钢可在反弹至电炉平电成本时试空

1. Rebar can be tried short when it rebounds to the flat electricity cost of electric furnaces

2. 铁矿石反弹至820元/吨以上试空

2. Iron ore can be tried short when it rebounds above 820 yuan/ton

中长期需关注：宏观政策发力情况、传统消费旺季需求恢复程度以及钢厂复产节奏。

Medium to long term focus should be on: the effectiveness of macro policies, the degree of demand recovery during the traditional peak consumption season, and the pace of steel mill production resumption.