2024年香港出口展望：电子产品将带动整体出口温和复苏
随着2023年接近尾声，香港出口行业出现复苏迹象。经历艰难的一年后，电子产品预计将成为2024年香港出口增长的主要驱动力，整体出口有望实现4%-6%的温和增长。
As 2023 draws to a close, signs of recovery are emerging in Hong Kong's export sector. After a challenging year, electronics are expected to be the main driver of Hong Kong's export growth in 2024, with overall exports projected to achieve moderate growth of 4%-6%.
2023年出口表现回顾
2023 Export Performance Review
香港出口在2022年下降8.6%后，2023年1-10月继续下滑11%。主要影响因素包括：
- 全球通胀高企
- 利率持续上升
- 地缘政治紧张局势
After declining by 8.6% in 2022, Hong Kong's exports continued to fall by 11% from January to October 2023. Key contributing factors include:
- Global inflation
- Persistent interest rate hikes
- Geopolitical tensions
关键市场分析
Key Market Analysis
亚洲市场占香港出口的87%，其中：
| 市场 | 2023年1-10月表现 |
|---|---|
| 中国内地 | -13.7% |
| 东盟 | -10.9% |
| 印度 | -8.6% |
Asian markets account for 87% of Hong Kong's exports, with:
| Market | Jan-Oct 2023 Performance |
|---|---|
| Mainland China | -13.7% |
| ASEAN | -10.9% |
| India | -8.6% |
2024年行业展望
2024 Industry Outlook
电子产品（占香港出口70%）预计将在2024年下半年明显复苏，主要受以下因素推动：
- 全球半导体销售回暖
- AI功能PC需求增长
- 智能手机市场复苏
Electronics (70% of Hong Kong's exports) are expected to show significant recovery in the second half of 2024, driven by:
- Rebound in global semiconductor sales
- Growing demand for AI-enabled PCs
- Smartphone market recovery
根据香港贸发局调查，39%受访企业预计2024年业务量将增加，54%预计至少保持稳定。
According to HKTDC survey, 39% of respondents expect business volume to increase in 2024, while 54% expect at least stability.
风险因素
Risk Factors
主要风险包括：
- 全球经济放缓（84.7%企业关注）
- 地缘政治紧张（62.5%企业关注）
- 通胀压力持续
Key risks include:
- Global economic slowdown (concern for 84.7% of companies)
- Geopolitical tensions (concern for 62.5% of companies)
- Persistent inflation pressures
