香港出口额六连跌或将导致全年GDP负增长 - 外贸形势分析与经济展望
记者 | 张熹珑 | 编辑 | 11月28日
香港政府统计处最新发布的贸易数据显示，香港外贸持续疲软，可能对全年经济增长产生负面影响。
The latest trade data released by the Hong Kong Census and Statistics Department shows continued weakness in foreign trade, which may negatively impact annual economic growth.
外贸数据持续下滑
Continued Decline in Trade Data
前10月数据显示，香港商品整体出口货值和进口货值分别同比下跌4.4%和3.7%，有形贸易逆差达3155亿港元。特别值得注意的是，10月份单月出口下跌10.4%，进口下跌11.9%，呈现加速下滑趋势。
Data for the first ten months shows Hong Kong's total export and import values decreased by 4.4% and 3.7% year-on-year respectively, with a visible trade deficit reaching HK$315.5 billion. Particularly noteworthy is that October's single-month exports fell by 10.4%, while imports dropped by 11.9%, showing an accelerating downward trend.
主要贸易伙伴表现疲软
Weak Performance Among Major Trading Partners
作为香港最大贸易伙伴，内地贸易额前10月下跌9.86%。大湾区各港口也呈现不同程度跌幅：深圳和东莞对港进出口分别下降12.9%和3.4%；广州和佛山分别下滑2.9%和1.5%。
As Hong Kong's largest trading partner, mainland China's trade volume fell by 9.86% in the first ten months. Major ports in the Greater Bay Area also showed varying degrees of decline: Shenzhen and Dongguan's trade with Hong Kong decreased by 12.9% and 3.4% respectively; Guangzhou and Foshan saw declines of 2.9% and 1.5%.
全球经济环境影响
Impact of Global Economic Environment
欧美传统消费旺季未能提振需求，德国和美国对港出口分别下跌21.1%和19.5%。研究显示，今年欧洲圣诞节非食品支出预计减少430亿英镑，其中服装(-26%)、电子产品(-22.3%)等品类降幅明显。
The traditional peak consumption season in Europe and America failed to boost demand, with exports to Germany and the US falling by 21.1% and 19.5% respectively. Research indicates that non-food spending during this year's European Christmas season is expected to decrease by £43 billion, with significant declines in categories like apparel (-26%) and electronics (-22.3%).
GDP增长压力
GDP Growth Pressure
香港第三季度GDP同比下跌4.5%，财政司司长陈茂波预计全年将录得负增长。作为经济支柱的贸易及物流业直接受到冲击，三季度货品出口同比下滑15.6%。
Hong Kong's third-quarter GDP fell by 4.5% year-on-year, with Financial Secretary Paul Chan predicting negative growth for the full year. The trade and logistics industry, as an economic pillar, was directly impacted, with goods exports declining by 15.6% in the third quarter.
未来发展机遇
Future Development Opportunities
尽管整体形势严峻，香港与东盟国家贸易呈现逆势增长：前10月对新加坡出口增长23.5%，对越南出口增长17.4%。港府正积极推动加入RCEP，并深化大湾区AEO合作，80家本地企业已获认证，为790亿港元货物提供通关便利。
Despite the overall challenging situation, Hong Kong's trade with ASEAN countries showed counter-trend growth: exports to Singapore increased by 23.5% and to Vietnam by 17.4% in the first ten months. The Hong Kong government is actively promoting accession to RCEP and deepening AEO cooperation in the Greater Bay Area, with 80 local companies already certified, providing customs clearance facilitation for HK$79 billion worth of goods.
经济复苏措施
Economic Recovery Measures
港府通过放宽入境检疫政策刺激服务输出，三季度服务输出环比增加超110亿港元。商经局将继续支持海关扩大互认网络，促进大湾区便捷流动。
The Hong Kong government has stimulated service exports by relaxing entry quarantine policies, with service exports increasing by over HK$11 billion quarter-on-quarter in Q3. The Commerce and Economic Development Bureau will continue to support customs in expanding mutual recognition networks to facilitate Greater Bay Area flows.
