前8个月中国外贸进出口数据分析：承压前行显韧性
新华社 | 作者 邹多为 丁乐
受多重因素影响，我国外贸承压前行。7日发布的海关统计数据显示，今年前8个月，我国外贸进出口总值27.08万亿元，同比微降0.1%。其中，8月当月进出口3.59万亿元，同比下降2.5%，环比增长3.9%。
Xinhua News Agency | By Zou Duowei, Ding Le
Affected by multiple factors, China's foreign trade has been moving forward under pressure. Customs statistics released on the 7th show that in the first eight months of this year, China's total foreign trade import and export value was 27.08 trillion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.1% year-on-year. In August alone, imports and exports totaled 3.59 trillion yuan, down 2.5% year-on-year but up 3.9% month-on-month.
外贸总体平稳运行
"我国外贸运行总体平稳。"海关总署统计分析司司长吕大良说，从前8个月来看，进出口同比基本持平。而单看8月份，近3.6万亿元的进出口规模跟7月份相比增长3.9%，较2020—2022年同期均值增长8.2%，这一规模，在今年月度数据和历史同期数据中都是第二高点。
Steady Operation of Foreign Trade
"China's foreign trade is generally running smoothly," said Lyu Daliang, Director of the General Administration of Customs Statistics and Analysis Department. Looking at the first eight months, imports and exports were basically flat year-on-year. In August alone, the import and export scale of nearly 3.6 trillion yuan increased by 3.9% compared with July and increased by 8.2% compared with the average of the same period from 2020 to 2022. This scale is the second highest point in this year's monthly data and historical data for the same period.
外贸韧性显现
对于外贸发展面临的考验，对外经济贸易大学国际经济研究院执行院长庄芮认为，在全球经贸增长乏力、保护主义抬头以及我国外贸基数较高的背景下，要理性看待外贸数据出现的波动。
世界贸易组织预计今年全球货物贸易量增长1.7%，明显低于过去12年2.6%的平均水平。吕大良表示，贸易放缓是各个经济体面临的共同挑战，与周边已公布数据的经济体相比，我国外贸仍然展现出较强韧性，竞争优势稳中加固。
Resilience of Foreign Trade
Regarding the challenges facing the development of foreign trade, Zhuang Rui, executive dean of the Institute of International Economy at the University of International Business and Economics, believes that against the backdrop of weak global economic and trade growth, rising protectionism, and China's high foreign trade base, fluctuations in foreign trade data should be viewed rationally.
The World Trade Organization expects global merchandise trade volume to grow by 1.7% this year, significantly lower than the average of 2.6% over the past 12 years. Lyu Daliang said that trade slowdown is a common challenge faced by various economies. Compared with neighboring economies that have released data, China's foreign trade still shows strong resilience, and competitive advantages are steadily strengthening.
外贸结构持续优化
——活力走强。今年前8个月，我国有进出口实绩的外贸经营主体58万家，其中以中小微企业为主、充满活力的民营企业占比8成以上，合计进出口14.33万亿元，同比增长6%，规模占我国进出口总值的52.9%，比去年同期提升3个百分点。
——结构更优。以机电产品为代表的技术密集、附加值高的行业领域动能充沛。前8个月，我国出口机电产品8.97万亿元，同比增长3.6%，占出口总值的58%。
——市场多元。随着贸易伙伴不断增多，前8个月，我国对"一带一路"沿线国家合计进出口同比增长3.6%，占进出口总值比重提升至46.6%。
Continuous Optimization of Foreign Trade Structure
- Stronger vitality. In the first eight months of this year, there were 580,000 foreign trade operators with actual import and export performance in China, of which more than 80% were vibrant private enterprises mainly composed of small, medium and micro enterprises, with a total import and export value of 14.33 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6%, accounting for 52.9% of China's total import and export value, an increase of 3 percentage points over the same period last year.
- Better structure. Technology-intensive and high value-added industries represented by mechanical and electrical products are full of momentum. In the first eight months, China's exports of mechanical and electrical products reached 8.97 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.6%, accounting for 58% of the total export value.
- More diversified markets. As trade partners continue to increase, in the first eight months, China's total imports and exports to countries along the "Belt and Road" increased by 3.6% year-on-year, accounting for 46.6% of the total import and export value.
展望未来：坚定信心
在庄芮看来，我国经济韧性强、潜力足、长期向好的基本面没有改变。我国拥有完整的产业链、供应链，是名副其实的制造业大国，组织生产能力远远高于其他国家。"对于我国外贸行业来说，企业依旧存在很大的发展机会，我们要对外贸稳规模优结构坚定信心。"
Looking Ahead: Firm Confidence
In Zhuang Rui's view, the fundamentals of China's economy - strong resilience, sufficient potential and long-term improvement - have not changed. China has a complete industrial chain and supply chain and is a veritable manufacturing power, with organizational and production capabilities far exceeding those of other countries. "For China's foreign trade industry, companies still have great development opportunities. We must have firm confidence in stabilizing the scale and optimizing the structure of foreign trade."
