2018年越南纺织品服装出口：展望与挑战
年初以来，越南纺织品服装出口取得了相当可观的结果，并正迈向今年310亿美元的目标。尽管因受到世界和伙伴国形势动荡带来的不利影响而面临不少困难，但据业内专家预测，明年，越南纺织品服装业将继续蓬勃发展。
Since the beginning of the year, Vietnam's textile and garment exports have achieved remarkable results and are moving towards this year's target of $31 billion. Despite facing many difficulties due to global and partner country instability, industry experts predict Vietnam's textile industry will continue to thrive next year.
去年全年和今年初，伙伴方的进口订单大幅减少，使纺织品服装出口遇到很多困难。意识到这一点，纺织品服装企业积极投资升级生产系统，集中于一些优势商品，寻找和扩大市场，因此，出口情况大大改善。
Throughout last year and early this year, a significant reduction in import orders from partners created many difficulties for textile exports. Recognizing this, textile companies actively invested in upgrading production systems, focused on competitive products, and sought to expand markets, leading to substantial export improvements.
今年前三季度，越南纺织品服装业的出口额达近230亿美元。第四季度有望达到80亿美元，全年累计310亿美元，与去年相比增长百分之十 。若达到这一数字，越南纺织品服装出口额将跻身世界26强。
In the first three quarters of this year, Vietnam's textile exports reached nearly $23 billion. The fourth quarter is expected to reach $8 billion, bringing the annual total to $31 billion - a 10% increase compared to last year. Achieving this figure would place Vietnam among the world's top 26 textile exporters.
上述结果来自于今年越南纺织品服装业的坚实基础——各家企业的周密准备及政府发展配套工业的主张。这是纺织品服装业更强劲发展的动力和助推力。
These results stem from the solid foundation of Vietnam's textile industry this year - thorough preparations by enterprises and the government's policy of developing supporting industries. This provides momentum for stronger industry development.
据预测，明年将是越南纺织品服装业积极向好的一年，有望保持两位数增长。兴安服装总公司董事长阮春阳表示，对于大型企业来说，明年订单将会大量增加。
Forecasts suggest next year will be positive for Vietnam's textile industry, with potential for double-digit growth. Mr. Nguyen Xuan Duong, Chairman of Hung Yen Garment Corporation, stated that large enterprises will see significant order increases.
不过，多个地区市场的价格下降将对越南纺织品服装的出口造成影响。他说："明年，若说订货数量，还是不少，但价格仍被压低，因为，目前，所有市场的纺织品服装价格都在走低。这是企业担心的问题。明年，价格可能还会下降，但越南劳动者的工资和其他费用都在增加。如果企业想生存下去，唯一的办法就是提高生产率。我们将采取措施，通过改进技术、设备和企业治理提高生产率"。
However, price declines in multiple regional markets will impact Vietnam's textile exports. He noted: "Next year, while order quantities remain substantial, prices continue to be pressured downward as global textile prices decline. This concerns businesses. Prices may fall further next year while Vietnamese labor costs and other expenses rise. The only solution for business survival is productivity improvement. We will implement measures to enhance productivity through technology upgrades, equipment improvements, and better corporate governance."
正如兴安服装总公司董事长阮春阳所说的，劳动生产率显然是特别重要的因素。工贸部高级研究员范必胜认为，越南纺织品服装的主要出口市场正在出现较大且难以预测的变动，特别是贸易保护主义抬头，这与自由贸易趋势恰恰相反。
As Mr. Duong emphasized, labor productivity is clearly a critical factor. Senior researcher Pham Bi Tich from the Ministry of Industry and Trade noted that Vietnam's main textile export markets are experiencing significant, unpredictable changes, particularly with rising trade protectionism that contradicts free trade trends.
他说: "一些大型市场正出现对外关门的潮流。他们限制开放市场给我们造成了影响。第二是来自巴基斯坦、中国等竞争对手的压力。越南要提高竞争力，才能缓解这一压力。第三是，投资发展生产技术，以跟上世界潮流"。
He stated: "Some major markets are showing tendencies toward closing their doors. Their market access restrictions impact us. Second is competitive pressure from rivals like Pakistan and China. Vietnam must enhance competitiveness to mitigate this pressure. Third is investing in production technology development to keep pace with global trends."
在信息技术和科技进步使产品生产和供应方式发生迅速变化的背景下，纺织品服装业面临的竞争将更加激烈。越南纺织品服装协会主席武德江表示："生产要与发展技术、打造品牌同时进行，要把品牌推向世界市场，要掌握好第4 次工业革命的先进技术。要让越南商品在世界市场上有自主品牌。我们建议政府防止仿冒品牌进入越南。越南纺织品服装协会正在为打造稳定、可持续、有效发展的纺织品服装业同时开展多项工作，让企业放心投资，确保未来可持续发展"。
Amid rapid changes in production and supply methods driven by IT and technological advances, competition in the textile industry will intensify. Vu Duc Giang, Chairman of the Vietnam Textile and Apparel Association, said: "Production must progress alongside technological development and brand building, bringing Vietnamese brands to global markets while mastering Fourth Industrial Revolution technologies. We need Vietnamese products with independent brands in world markets. We recommend the government prevent counterfeit brands from entering Vietnam. The Association is implementing multiple initiatives to build a stable, sustainable textile industry that encourages confident business investment and ensures future sustainable development."
尽管正面对阻碍纺织品服装业扩大生产和出口的一系列挑战，但据预测，明年越南纺织品服装业发展情况仍相当于乐观。今后，除了政府和有关部门帮助解决困难并为本行业发展创造便利条件外，越南纺织品服装企业也将做好筹资、市场等方面的准备，并在投资和生产新产品过程中逐步应用第4次工业革命的科技成果。
Despite facing numerous challenges hindering production and export expansion, Vietnam's textile industry is predicted to maintain optimistic development next year. Moving forward, in addition to government support in addressing difficulties and creating favorable conditions, Vietnamese textile enterprises will prepare in financing, market access, and gradually apply Fourth Industrial Revolution technologies in new product investment and production processes.
