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人民币汇率波动对外贸企业的影响
Impact of RMB Exchange Rate Fluctuations on Foreign Trade Enterprises
2020年至2021年,人民币汇率经历了先降后升的过程。受疫情影响,2020年1月至5月人民币汇率波动贬值,5月一度贬值至7.17左右。但随着国内疫情得到有效控制,经济率先复苏,人民币开始升值,从去年5月底至今年1月,人民币升值近10%。1月13日的实时数据显示,美元兑人民币汇率在6.45左右。
From 2020 to 2021, the RMB exchange rate experienced a process of first falling and then rising. Affected by the epidemic, the RMB exchange rate fluctuated and depreciated from January to May 2020, and once depreciated to around 7.17 in May. However, as the domestic epidemic was effectively controlled and the economy took the lead in recovery, the RMB began to appreciate. From the end of May last year to January this year, the RMB appreciated by nearly 10%. Real-time data on January 13 showed that the US dollar to RMB exchange rate was around 6.45.
外贸企业的困境
Dilemma of Foreign Trade Enterprises
深圳市科乐科技有限公司总经理张志琼表示,该公司在去年疫情期间接的订单到8月后回款,利润不见了几十万。人民币汇率波动贬值,有时候就是一夜之间不见了几十万。由于外贸企业生产在国内,订单大多来自海外,收入的是美元,但购料、人工等支出都需要用人民币。随着人民币不断升值,同样多的美元,现在只能换回更少的人民币,汇兑导致企业利润减少。
Zhang Zhiqiong, general manager of Shenzhen Kele Technology Co., Ltd., said that the company's orders received during the epidemic last year were repaid after August, and the profits disappeared by hundreds of thousands. The fluctuation and depreciation of the RMB exchange rate sometimes means that hundreds of thousands of yuan disappear overnight. Since foreign trade enterprises produce domestically, most of their orders come from overseas, and their income is in US dollars, but the purchase of materials, labor and other expenses need to be paid in RMB. As the RMB continues to appreciate, the same amount of US dollars can now only be exchanged for less RMB, and the exchange rate leads to a reduction in corporate profits.
应对策略
Response Strategies
面对结汇损失,前海开源首席经济学家杨德龙表示,外贸企业一般要通过汇率的远期合约来做套期保值,对冲远期汇率的波动。因为很多企业收款,可能要有一段时间,但是未来一段时间汇率怎么波动,是无法预测的。
Faced with exchange settlement losses, Yang Delong, chief economist of Qianhai Open Source, said that foreign trade enterprises generally need to use forward contracts on exchange rates to hedge and hedge against fluctuations in forward exchange rates. Because many companies may take some time to receive payments, but how the exchange rate will fluctuate in the future is unpredictable.
人民币报价模式
RMB Quotation Model
张志琼告诉南都记者,目前最好的一个办法,就是和客户商量采取人民币的方式报价,等到收汇的时候,按照当天的汇率结算美金。“因为目前用人民币报价会相对稳妥一点,但是很多客户也不接受。但是没办法,很多的企业相继采取人民币报价的方式,客户也就不得不慢慢去适应这种新模式。”
Zhang Zhiqiong told Nandu reporters that the best way at present is to negotiate with customers to quote in RMB, and when collecting foreign exchange, settle in US dollars according to the exchange rate of the day. "Because quoting in RMB is relatively safer at present, but many customers do not accept it. But there is no way, many companies have successively adopted the RMB quotation method, and customers have to slowly adapt to this new model."
专家建议
Expert Advice
韩淼表示,在过去的30年,外汇核销制度是我们国家经济保持强劲增长的的根源之一,国家维持汇率的稳定,风险由国家来承担,出口企业不需要考虑汇率变动的风险。但在新形势下,出口企业面对外汇核销制度必须找到新的思路来应对双向浮动的汇率。
Han Miao said that in the past 30 years, the foreign exchange verification and cancellation system has been one of the roots of our country's strong economic growth. The country maintains the stability of the exchange rate, and the risk is borne by the country. Export enterprises do not need to consider the risk of exchange rate changes. However, under the new situation, export enterprises must find new ideas to cope with the two-way floating exchange rate in the face of the foreign exchange verification and cancellation system.
