中国钢材出口创7年新高：东南亚市场成增长主力 警惕贸易摩擦风险
2023年中国钢材出口量同比增长36.2%，达到9026.4万吨，创下自2017年以来的新高。这一数字也使得中国钢材出口量位居历史第四高位。与此同时，钢材进口量下降27.6%至765万吨，这是自1995年有公开数据记录以来首次低于1000万吨。
In 2023, China's steel exports increased by 36.2% year-on-year, reaching 90.264 million tons, marking the highest level since 2017. This figure also places China's steel exports as the fourth highest in history. Meanwhile, steel imports dropped by 27.6% to 7.65 million tons, the first time below 10 million tons since public records began in 1995.
华创证券研究报告指出，2023年的情况与2014-2016年的钢材出口高峰期相似。当时国内需求尚可，但实际供给严重过剩，导致钢铁企业转向海外市场。2023年，经济复苏预期导致钢铁企业开工率提升，但实际需求未达预期，国内需求不足而供给收缩有限，促使钢材出口再次放大。
Huachuang Securities research report indicates that the 2023 situation resembles the steel export peak period of 2014-2016. At that time, domestic demand was moderate but actual supply was severely excessive, forcing steel enterprises to turn to overseas markets. In 2023, economic recovery expectations led to increased operating rates at steel enterprises, but actual demand fell short of expectations. Insufficient domestic demand coupled with limited supply contraction prompted another expansion of steel exports.
价格方面，2023年中国出口钢材平均单价为936.8美元/吨（约合6744元人民币/吨），同比下跌32.7%。研究院分析指出，这是钢材出口价格连续六年上涨后的首次下跌。与此同时，进口钢材吨钢均价达到11650元/吨，创近十年新高。
Regarding prices, the average unit price of China's steel exports in 2023 was $936.8/ton (about 6,744 yuan/ton), down 32.7% year-on-year. The analysis by the Institute points out this marks the first decline after six consecutive years of rising steel export prices. Meanwhile, the average import price reached 11,650 yuan/ton, the highest in nearly a decade.
东南亚市场表现亮眼，2023年中国钢材出口到亚洲6139万吨，同比增长43.37%，占总出口量的68%。其中，越南以379万吨的增量位居第一，泰国、印尼、马来西亚等东南亚国家也位居出口增量前十。对印度、阿联酋、巴西等国家的钢材出口量同比增幅超过50%。
Southeast Asian markets performed remarkably, with China exporting 61.39 million tons of steel to Asia in 2023, up 43.37% year-on-year, accounting for 68% of total exports. Vietnam ranked first with an increase of 3.79 million tons, while Thailand, Indonesia, and Malaysia also made the top ten in export growth. Exports to India, UAE, Brazil and other countries saw year-on-year increases exceeding 50%.
值得注意的是，出口结构发生明显变化。自2021年出口退税取消以来，合金钢板/带、合金钢棒线材出口量大幅下降。而用于建筑行业的钢筋、中厚宽钢带、热轧薄宽钢带等品种出口量显著增长，部分品类同比增长超过100%。
Notably, the export structure has changed significantly. Since the cancellation of export tax rebates in 2021, exports of alloy steel plates/strips and alloy steel bar/wire rods have dropped substantially. Meanwhile, exports of construction-related products like rebar, medium-thick wide steel strips, and hot-rolled thin wide steel strips grew significantly, with some categories increasing by over 100% year-on-year.
贸易摩擦风险需警惕。2023年海外国家对中国发起钢铁产品反倾销、反补贴等公告共112起，同比增加约20起。中国钢铁工业协会提醒，中国钢材出口量预计占全球贸易比重超过20%，可能成为它国贸易保护重点关注对象。
Trade friction risks require vigilance. In 2023, foreign countries initiated 112 anti-dumping and countervailing duty announcements against Chinese steel products, an increase of about 20 cases year-on-year. The China Iron and Steel Association warns that China's steel exports are expected to account for over 20% of global trade, potentially making them a key target for trade protection measures by other countries.
展望未来，经合组织报告显示2024-2026年全球钢厂仍有约1.24亿吨的产能扩产计划。中短期内，钢材需求释放或提前于供给释放，中国作为钢材供应大国有望在此轮扩产周期中获益。
Looking ahead, OECD reports indicate global steel mills still have about 124 million tons of capacity expansion plans for 2024-2026. In the short to medium term, steel demand may be released ahead of supply, and China as a major steel supplier stands to benefit from this expansion cycle.
