外贸优化策略：如何应对严峻外部环境并挖掘增长潜力
当前外贸形势分析 | Analysis of Current Foreign Trade Situation
2022年以来，我国外贸面临多重挑战： | Since 2022, China's foreign trade has faced multiple challenges:
• 世界经济增速放缓（世贸组织商品贸易晴雨表指数仅96.2） | • Slowdown in world economic growth (WTO Goods Trade Barometer index only 96.2)
• 美国推行"脱钩"政策，高技术产品进口限制加剧 | • US implements "decoupling" policy with increased restrictions on high-tech product imports
• 全球供应链重构，部分产业转移 | • Global supply chain restructuring with partial industrial relocation
2023年外贸展望 | 2023 Foreign Trade Outlook
世界银行预测2023年全球GDP增速仅1.9%，货物贸易量增速将从2022年的3.5%降至1.0%。美国"逆全球化"政策将持续，我国外贸将面临： | The World Bank predicts global GDP growth of only 1.9% in 2023, with goods trade volume growth slowing from 3.5% in 2022 to 1.0%. The US "anti-globalization" policy will continue, posing challenges to China's foreign trade:
• 外需持续疲软 | • Continued weak external demand
• 产业链竞争加剧 | • Intensified industrial chain competition
• 贸易保护主义抬头 | • Rising trade protectionism
外贸优化策略 | Foreign Trade Optimization Strategies
国内措施： | Domestic measures:
1. 产业结构优化，寻找新增长点（如2022年汽车出口表现亮眼） | 1. Optimize industrial structure and identify new growth points (e.g. outstanding performance of auto exports in 2022)
2. 推动制度型开放，降低进口投资门槛 | 2. Promote institutional opening-up and lower import investment thresholds
3. 用好稳外贸政策措施 | 3. Make good use of foreign trade stabilization policies
国际策略： | International strategies:
• 深化RCEP合作 | • Deepen RCEP cooperation
• 扩大"一带一路"贸易规模 | • Expand trade scale under the Belt and Road Initiative
• 维护多边贸易体制 | • Maintain multilateral trading system
• 推动中美经贸关系回归正轨 | • Promote return to normal track for China-US economic relations
外贸发展潜力 | Foreign Trade Development Potential
尽管面临挑战，2022年前11个月我国货物贸易进出口仍同比增长8.6%，达38.34万亿元。随着： | Despite challenges, China's goods trade import and export still increased by 8.6% year-on-year in the first 11 months of 2022, reaching 38.34 trillion yuan. With:
• 疫情缓和 | • Easing pandemic situation
• 经济活力恢复 | • Recovery of economic vitality
• 政策支持加强 | • Strengthened policy support
我国外贸仍具巨大发展潜力，有望实现稳规模、优结构的目标。 | China's foreign trade still has huge development potential and is expected to achieve the goals of stabilizing scale and optimizing structure.
（作者：中国国际贸易学会常务理事何伟文） | (Author: He Weiwen, Executive Director of China Society for WTO Studies)
