外贸订单暴跌50%？5月能否迎来转机？深度解析外贸行业现状
最新外贸数据显示行业面临严峻挑战
Latest foreign trade data shows industry facing severe challenges
4月7日，广州南沙蔡新路附近，一道长长的红色隔离围栏将肖琼雄所在的摩托车厂一分为二。由于疫情防控需要，该区域被划分为防范区，但员工大多居住在管控区，工厂被迫暂时停产。
On April 7th, near Caixin Road in Nansha, Guangzhou, a long red isolation fence divided the motorcycle factory where Xiao Qiongxiong works into two parts. Due to epidemic prevention requirements, the area was designated as a precautionary zone, but most employees live in controlled zones, forcing the factory to temporarily suspend production.
肖琼雄是这家中小型摩托车厂的负责人，公司在珠三角地区经营已超过二十年，其出口业务主要面向中东、东南亚等地区。他表示，新的停工变化使公司原本就已"减半"的3月订单情况变得更加不确定。
Xiao Qiongxiong is the head of this small-to-medium-sized motorcycle factory, which has been operating in the Pearl River Delta region for over 20 years, with export business mainly targeting the Middle East and Southeast Asia. He stated that the new suspension has made the already "halved" March orders even more uncertain.
外贸数据揭示行业趋势
Foreign trade data reveals industry trends
根据海关总署和国家统计局的相关数据：1-2月，货物进出口总额达62044亿元，同比增长13.3%。其中，出口额为34716亿元，增长13.6%；中国制造业PMI的其他相关指标显示，3月新出口订单指数为47.2%，较上月下降1.8个百分点。
According to data from the General Administration of Customs and the National Bureau of Statistics: from January to February, total goods import and export volume reached 6,204.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.3%. Exports amounted to 3,471.6 billion yuan, up 13.6%; other relevant indicators of China's manufacturing PMI show that the new export orders index for March was 47.2%, down 1.8 percentage points from the previous month.
中国（深圳）综合开发研究院银湖新能源战略研究中心副主任韦福雷指出，1-2月出口总值同比增长13.6%，与2021年12月（当月同比增长17.3%）相比，增速下降了3.7个百分点，呈现出高位下行的趋势。
Wei Fulei, Deputy Director of the Silver Lake New Energy Strategy Research Center at the China (Shenzhen) Development Institute, pointed out that the year-on-year growth of total export value from January to February was 13.6%, compared to December 2021 (17.3% year-on-year growth that month), representing a decline of 3.7 percentage points, showing a downward trend from high levels.
专家观点：无需过度悲观
Expert opinion: No need for excessive pessimism
韦福雷也认为，对于出口情况无需过度悲观。放眼全球，目前尚无任何国家能够取代我国的生产制造能力。外贸受疫情反复冲击而出现波动实属正常现象。
Wei Fulei also believes there's no need for excessive pessimism about the export situation. Globally, no country can currently replace China's manufacturing capabilities. Fluctuations in foreign trade due to repeated epidemic impacts are normal phenomena.
此外，2020年疫情初期对贸易造成了较大冲击，出现了负增长，使得基数较低。经过两年的恢复，基数的影响已逐渐减弱。
Additionally, the early stages of the pandemic in 2020 caused significant impact on trade, resulting in negative growth and creating a lower base. After two years of recovery, the base effect has gradually weakened.
