印度提高金银首饰进口关税对全球贵金属市场的影响分析
最新关税政策：印度政府自1月22日起将金银首饰进口关税从11%上调至15%，与金银条关税保持一致。同时，含贵金属废催化剂的进口关税也从10.1%上调至14.35%。
Latest tariff policy: The Indian government has increased import tariffs on gold and silver jewelry from 11% to 15% since January 22, aligning with the tariffs on gold and silver bars. Meanwhile, import tariffs on waste catalysts containing precious metals have also been raised from 10.1% to 14.35%.
政策目的：印度财政部表示此次调整旨在防止通过首饰部件进口规避金银条关税的行为。过去两个月，印度海关在进口货物中多次发现通过珠宝配件（如挂钩、卡扣等）走私黄金的情况。
Policy purpose: The Indian Ministry of Finance stated that this adjustment aims to prevent the circumvention of gold and silver bar tariffs through the import of jewelry components. In the past two months, Indian customs has repeatedly discovered gold smuggling through jewelry accessories (such as hooks, clasps, etc.) in imported goods.
对市场的影响
Market Impact
价格影响：业内人士分析，关税上调将导致印度市场金银首饰价格上涨。SMM调研显示，部分市场参与者预计相关产品价格将出现5-8%的涨幅。
Price impact: Industry analysts believe that the tariff increase will lead to higher prices for gold and silver jewelry in the Indian market. SMM research shows that some market participants expect prices of related products to rise by 5-8%.
贸易影响：作为全球第二大贵金属消费国，印度几乎全部依赖进口。2022年印度曾考虑将黄金进口税从12.5%降至10%以控制非法运输，但此次反而提高关税，显示其政策转向。
Trade impact: As the world's second largest consumer of precious metals, India relies almost entirely on imports. In 2022, India considered reducing gold import taxes from 12.5% to 10% to control illegal transportation, but this time it has instead increased tariffs, indicating a shift in policy.
印度贵金属消费现状
Current Status of India's Precious Metals Consumption
黄金市场：世界黄金协会预计2023年印度黄金需求可能下降10%至700吨，创三年新低。但印度央行2023年10月黄金购买量同比增长60%，达到123吨。
Gold market: The World Gold Council expects India's gold demand in 2023 may fall by 10% to 700 tons, a three-year low. However, the Reserve Bank of India's gold purchases in October 2023 increased by 60% year-on-year to 123 tons.
白银市场：2022年印度白银进口量创8000吨新高，但2023年1-11月进口量同比下降65%至3337吨。世界白银协会数据显示，2022年印度银饰用银量几乎翻倍，达到3472吨。
Silver market: India's silver imports hit a record high of 8,000 tons in 2022, but from January to November 2023, imports fell by 65% year-on-year to 3,337 tons. Data from the World Silver Survey shows that India's silver jewelry consumption nearly doubled in 2022, reaching 3,472 tons.
中国贵金属市场情况
China's Precious Metals Market Situation
黄金储备：中国人民银行连续14个月增持黄金，截至2023年12月末黄金储备达7187万盎司，累计增持923万盎司。
Gold reserves: The People's Bank of China has increased its gold holdings for 14 consecutive months. As of the end of December 2023, gold reserves reached 71.87 million ounces, with a cumulative increase of 9.23 million ounces.
白银产业：2023年中国1#白银产量同比增长7.7%至16266.47吨，出口4066吨。主要出口至香港、印度、泰国等地区。
Silver industry: China's #1 silver production in 2023 increased by 7.7% year-on-year to 16,266.47 tons, with exports of 4,066 tons. Main export destinations include Hong Kong, India, Thailand and other regions.
机构观点
Institutional Views
摩根大通：预计2024年黄金将维持在2000美元/盎司以上，贵金属将受益于降息和投资需求回升。对黄金和白银保持结构性看涨观点。
JPMorgan: It is expected that gold will remain above $2,000/oz in 2024, and precious metals will benefit from interest rate cuts and rebounding investment demand. Maintains a structurally bullish view on gold and silver.
中信证券：预计2024年流动性因素将继续利好贵金属和铜价，工业金属供需格局有望修复，电池金属可能出现局部反弹。
CITIC Securities: It is expected that liquidity factors will continue to benefit precious metals and copper prices in 2024, the supply and demand pattern of industrial metals is expected to recover, and battery metals may see partial rebounds.
