2024年10-11月轮胎产业深度分析：市场需求疲软与成本压力并存
10月轮胎市场回顾：中国轮胎行业在2024年10月呈现明显分化态势。半钢胎产能利用率维持在79.05%的相对高位，环比微降0.52%；而全钢胎则表现疲软，产能利用率仅为52.03%，环比同比均大幅下滑。值得注意的是，山东市场某品牌12R22.5/18PR花纹轮胎价格逆势微涨1.18%，达到860元/条。
October Market Review: China's tire industry showed significant divergence in October 2024. While semi-steel tire capacity utilization remained relatively high at 79.05%, down slightly by 0.52% month-on-month, all-steel tires performed weakly with capacity utilization at just 52.03%, showing substantial declines both month-on-month and year-on-year. Notably, prices for a particular 12R22.5/18PR patterned tire in Shandong market bucked the trend with a 1.18% increase to 860 yuan per tire.
11月市场预测：需求疲软将持续
November Market Forecast: Weak Demand to Persist
供应方面：预计11月半钢胎产能利用率将保持高位，全钢胎可能小幅回升。随着雪地胎生产进入尾声，四季胎生产计划将增加。但全钢胎代理商库存充足，补货意愿降低。
Supply Side: Semi-steel tire capacity utilization is expected to remain high in November, while all-steel tires may see a slight recovery. As snow tire production winds down, production plans for all-season tires will increase. However, all-steel tire agents have sufficient inventory and reduced restocking willingness.
需求方面：调研显示山东66.67%的全钢胎经销商看跌11月销量。随着气温下降，北方替换市场进入季节性淡季，库存消化放缓。出口方面虽受圣诞节提前交货支撑，但贸易摩擦和全球经济低迷将抑制需求。
Demand Side: Surveys show 66.67% of all-steel tire dealers in Shandong are pessimistic about November sales. As temperatures drop, replacement markets in northern China enter seasonal slack periods with slower inventory digestion. While exports are supported by early Christmas deliveries, trade frictions and global economic weakness will suppress demand.
成本与价格展望
Cost and Price Outlook
原材料价格：11月主要原材料面临下行压力。天然橡胶预计维持震荡；炭黑价格7600-7800元/吨；顺丁橡胶可能回调至14000元/吨附近。成本端支撑减弱将影响轮胎企业定价策略。
Raw Material Prices: Major raw materials face downward pressure in November. Natural rubber is expected to remain volatile; carbon black prices at 7600-7800 yuan/ton; butadiene rubber may correct to around 14000 yuan/ton. Weakening cost support will affect tire companies' pricing strategies.
库存情况：截至10月底，半钢胎库存周转天数36.49天，全钢胎39.21天。11月企业库存预计进入累积阶段，特别是全钢胎受需求减弱影响更明显。四季胎社会库存充裕，缺货情况将缓解。
Inventory Status: As of late October, semi-steel tire inventory turnover was 36.49 days, all-steel tires 39.21 days. Corporate inventories are expected to enter an accumulation phase in November, particularly for all-steel tires which are more affected by weakening demand. All-season tire social inventory is ample, alleviating shortage situations.
进出口数据分析
Import-Export Data Analysis
9月进出口：轮胎进口量0.71万吨，环比降17.49%；出口66.10万吨，环比降11.91%。1-9月累计出口609.32万吨，同比增长4.43%，但增幅收窄0.63个百分点。卡客车轮胎出口表现尤其疲软，同比下降1.95%。
September Trade: Tire imports were 0.71 million tons, down 17.49% month-on-month; exports 66.10 million tons, down 11.91% month-on-month. January-September cumulative exports reached 6.0932 million tons, up 4.43% year-on-year but with growth narrowing by 0.63 percentage points. Truck and bus tire exports were particularly weak, down 1.95% year-on-year.
