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海关总署最新数据显示,2023年前8个月我国进出口总值27.08万亿元,同比微降0.1%。其中出口15.47万亿元(增长0.8%),进口11.61万亿元(下降1.3%)。 According to the latest data fr

8月外贸回暖!出口仍面临挑战,稳外贸政策将加码?

海关总署最新数据显示2023年前8个月我国进出口总值27.08万亿元,同比微降0.1%。其中出口15.47万亿元(增长0.8%),进口11.61万亿元(下降1.3%)。

According to the latest data from the General Administration of Customs, China's total import and export value in the first eight months of 2023 reached 27.08 trillion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.1% year-on-year. Exports amounted to 15.47 trillion yuan (up 0.8%), while imports stood at 11.61 trillion yuan (down 1.3%).

8月单月外贸数据呈现明显回暖迹象:进出口总值3.59万亿元,环比增长3.9%。特别值得注意的是,出口降幅从7月的9.2%收窄至3.2%,显示外贸韧性。

The foreign trade data for August alone showed clear signs of recovery: total import and export value reached 3.59 trillion yuan, a month-on-month increase of 3.9%. Particularly noteworthy is the narrowing of the export decline from 9.2% in July to 3.2% in August, demonstrating the resilience of foreign trade.

外贸新动能表现亮眼

New Growth Drivers Shine in Foreign Trade

前8个月机电产品出口8.97万亿元(增长3.6%),占出口总值58%。其中汽车出口表现尤为突出,达4427亿元(增长104.4%)。

In the first eight months, exports of mechanical and electrical products reached 8.97 trillion yuan (up 3.6%), accounting for 58% of total exports. Automobile exports performed particularly well, reaching 442.7 billion yuan (up 104.4%).

光大银行宏观研究员周茂华指出:"尽管8月出口增速仍在下降,但实际表现并不弱。出口金额远高于近五年同期均值,主要受出口价格下滑拖累。"

Zhou Maohua, macro researcher at Everbright Bank, pointed out: "Although export growth in August is still declining, the actual performance is not weak. The export value is much higher than the average of the same period in the past five years, mainly dragged down by the decline in export prices."

未来挑战与政策展望

Future Challenges and Policy Outlook

专家认为主要挑战来自全球需求趋缓:主要经济体制造业PMI持续收缩,德国、欧元区经济衰退风险上升。预计未来将出台更多稳外贸政策,包括税费减免、跨境电商支持等。

Experts believe the main challenges come from slowing global demand: manufacturing PMIs of major economies continue to contract, and recession risks are rising in Germany and the eurozone. More foreign trade stabilization policies are expected, including tax reductions and exemptions, and support for cross-border e-commerce.

进口方面,随着国内经济恢复、房地产企稳,预计进口需求将逐步回升。新能源汽车、锂电池、太阳能电池等"新三样"将继续成为出口增长亮点。

On the import side, as the domestic economy recovers and the real estate market stabilizes, import demand is expected to gradually pick up. The "new three" of new energy vehicles, lithium batteries, and solar cells will continue to be highlights of export growth.

8月外贸回暖!出口仍面临挑战,稳外贸政策将加码?