韩国央行暗示暂停降息 2024年经济增长率或跌破1.8%
韩国央行行长李昌镛近日表示，鉴于国内政治经济不确定性加剧，继续降息可能引发市场动荡，2024年货币政策将保持灵活。
Bank of Korea Governor Rhee Chang-yong stated that given heightened domestic political and economic uncertainties, further rate cuts could trigger market turbulence, and monetary policy will remain flexible in 2024.
韩国央行在2023年10月和11月连续两次降息，将基准利率从3.5%下调至3%。但最新数据显示，韩国经济面临严峻挑战：
The Bank of Korea cut rates twice in October and November 2023, lowering the benchmark rate from 3.5% to 3%. However, recent data shows serious challenges facing the Korean economy:
- 2023年第三季度GDP仅环比增长0.1%
- 出口连续下滑，IT产品出口增速放缓
- 制造业PMI跌破荣枯线至49.0%
- Q3 2023 GDP grew only 0.1% quarter-on-quarter
- Exports continued to decline with slowing IT product exports
- Manufacturing PMI fell below 50 to 49.0%
经济预测下调：韩国财政部将2024年GDP增长预期从2.2%下调至2.1%，2025年预期从2.6%大幅下调至1.8%。分析师警告实际增速可能更低。
Growth forecasts revised down: The Ministry of Economy and Finance lowered 2024 GDP growth forecast from 2.2% to 2.1%, and slashed 2025 forecast from 2.6% to 1.8%. Analysts warn actual growth could be even lower.
政治动荡加剧经济风险：12月的政治危机导致股市和韩元大幅下跌，外资净卖出超过3万亿韩元股票。
Political turmoil increases economic risks: December's political crisis caused significant declines in stocks and the won, with foreign investors net selling over 3 trillion won in stocks.
外部风险因素：美国新政府的贸易政策可能对韩国出口造成冲击。分析师预测若美国对韩国商品征收10%关税，可能导致韩国实际GDP增长率累计下降0.8个百分点。
External risk factors: The new U.S. administration's trade policies could impact Korean exports. Analysts predict a 10% U.S. tariff on Korean goods could reduce Korea's real GDP growth by 0.8 percentage points cumulatively.
专家警告，如果当前政治经济不确定性持续，韩国2024年经济增长率可能跌破1.8%的预期，央行货币政策面临严峻考验。
Experts warn that if current political and economic uncertainties persist, Korea's 2024 growth rate may fall below the 1.8% forecast, posing serious challenges to the central bank's monetary policy.
