中国外贸能否抵御全球衰退的冲击？ | 市场前瞻
2023年出口可能出现低个位数下滑，但不至于出现全球金融危机时那样突然崩塌的情况。中国在全球贸易中的份额可能还会继续扩大
China's exports may experience a low single-digit decline in 2023, but it won't collapse suddenly like during the global financial crisis. China's share in global trade may continue to expand
文｜余向荣
By Yu Xiangrong
外需可能是2023年中国经济增长最大的变数。过去几个月出口增速明显下滑，已见颓势。2023年全球经济可能进一步陷入"滚动式衰退"，除中国外，全球经济实际增长预计将从2022年3%左右放缓至不到1%。
External demand may be the biggest variable for China's economic growth in 2023. Export growth has shown obvious decline in recent months. The global economy may further fall into a "rolling recession" in 2023, with real growth (excluding China) expected to slow from about 3% in 2022 to less than 1%.
在中国三大出口目的地中，2023年仅有东盟经济增长有望略微改善。也许外需名义增长不会太难看。全球通胀回落，但预计仍将高位运行。
Among China's three major export destinations, only ASEAN is expected to see slight economic improvement in 2023. Nominal external demand growth might not look too bad. Global inflation is receding but is expected to remain high.
中国出口韧性的两大支柱：
Two pillars of China's export resilience:
- 深度融合、多元化的贸易网络
- Deeply integrated and diversified trade network
- 完整复杂、多元化的产品结构
- Complete, complex and diversified product structure
专家观点： "中国在解决工业供给侧问题上要比提振需求（尤其消费）更加有力，得心应手。"
Expert view: "China is more effective and adept at solving industrial supply-side issues than boosting demand (especially consumption)."
2023年外贸三大关键因素：
Three key factors for 2023 foreign trade:
- 供应链基本修复
- Basically restored supply chains
- 持续的成本优势
- Sustained cost advantages
- 产业链迁移可控
- Controllable industrial chain relocation
笔者预计进口和服务贸易正常化将使得经常账户盈余从2022年占GDP的2.5%腰斩到1%左右。货物和服务净出口将拖累GDP实际增速接近一个百分点。
The normalization of imports and service trade is expected to halve the current account surplus from 2.5% of GDP in 2022 to about 1%. Net exports of goods and services may drag down real GDP growth by nearly one percentage point.
结论： 中国也许能够经受住全球衰退风险的冲击，但是稳外贸稳外资政策措施亦需全力以赴。
Conclusion: China may be able to withstand the impact of global recession risks, but policies to stabilize foreign trade and investment need full effort.
