G7峰会前博弈加剧：西方拟全面禁止对俄出口与黑海运粮协议危机

G7峰会前博弈加剧：西方拟全面禁止对俄出口与黑海运粮协议危机

Escalating Pre-G7 Summit Tensions: West Considers Full Export Ban on Russia Amid Black Sea Grain Deal Crisis

记者 | 安晶 七国集团（G7）将于5月19日到21日在日本广岛举行峰会，讨论对俄罗斯制裁、经济安全等议题。而G7峰会前一天也是黑海运粮协议到期之时。

Reporter | An Jing The G7 summit will be held in Hiroshima, Japan from May 19 to 21, discussing sanctions against Russia and economic security issues. The day before the summit also marks the expiration date of the Black Sea grain deal.

以G7峰会为“赛点”，西方与俄罗斯围绕新制裁和黑海运粮协议展开了博弈。日本媒体率先爆料称G7正在考虑拿出杀手锏，全面禁止对俄罗斯出口。俄罗斯随即警告，一旦G7实施全面禁令，俄罗斯将终结运粮协议。

With the G7 summit as a "turning point", the West and Russia are engaged in a game of chess over new sanctions and the Black Sea grain deal. Japanese media first reported that the G7 is considering a "trump card" - a comprehensive ban on exports to Russia. Russia immediately warned that if the G7 implements a full ban, Russia will terminate the grain deal.

欧盟与日本反对全面禁令

EU and Japan Oppose Full Ban

英国媒体的最新爆料则指出，欧盟和日本不赞成美全面禁止对俄出口。去年欧盟与俄罗斯的贸易量下降，但与俄罗斯的贸易额反而出现上涨。

Latest reports from British media reveal that the EU and Japan disagree with the US proposal for a full export ban on Russia. While EU-Russia trade volume declined last year, trade value actually increased.

《金融时报》4月24日援引匿名官员透露的消息报道，几乎完全禁止对俄出口的方案由美国提出，但欧盟和日本都表示了反对。一名官员称，要完全禁止对俄出口在实际操作上“无法做到”。

The Financial Times reported on April 24, citing anonymous officials, that the near-total export ban proposal came from the US but faced opposition from both the EU and Japan. One official stated that completely banning exports to Russia is "impossible to implement" in practice.

现有制裁效果分析

Analysis of Current Sanctions' Effectiveness

据欧盟委员会统计，自去年2月以来，欧盟禁止对俄出口商品的总价值超过439亿欧元，意味着往年49%的对俄出口都处于制裁中。

According to EU Commission statistics, since February last year, the EU has banned exports to Russia worth over €43.9 billion, meaning 49% of pre-war exports to Russia are now under sanctions.

但由于能源价格大涨，俄罗斯官方指出，去年俄罗斯与欧盟的贸易额为2587亿欧元，同比还增长2.3%，俄罗斯依然是欧盟第五大贸易伙伴。

However, due to soaring energy prices, Russian officials note that EU-Russia trade reached €258.7 billion last year, a 2.3% year-on-year increase, keeping Russia as the EU's fifth largest trading partner.

黑海运粮协议危机

Black Sea Grain Deal Crisis

俄罗斯联邦安全会议副主席梅德韦杰夫放话，一旦G7全面禁止对俄出口，俄罗斯将立刻终结黑海运粮协议。

Russian Security Council Deputy Chairman Medvedev warned that if the G7 implements a full export ban, Russia will immediately terminate the Black Sea grain deal.

截至目前，黑海运粮通道已运出了2780万吨粮食，运输的玉米占乌克兰2022/23年度玉米出口的60%，运输的小麦占小麦出口总量的56%。

To date, the Black Sea grain corridor has transported 27.8 million tons of grain, accounting for 60% of Ukraine's 2022/23 corn exports and 56% of its wheat exports.

在5月的G7峰会前，西方与俄罗斯围绕制裁和黑海运粮协议的博弈势必将加剧。

Before May's G7 summit, tensions between the West and Russia over sanctions and the grain deal are certain to intensify.