2024上半年越南橡胶出口下降与山东轮胎产业变化分析
【行业动态】2024年上半年，越南橡胶出口呈现明显下滑趋势。数据显示，越南天然橡胶和混合胶合计出口量为71.2万吨，较2023年同期的79万吨下降9.9%。其中，出口至中国的橡胶总量为48.2万吨，同比大幅下降17%（2023年为57.7万吨）。
【Industry Update】In the first half of 2024, Vietnam's rubber exports showed a significant downward trend. Data shows that Vietnam's total exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber reached 712,000 tons, a 9.9% decrease compared to 790,000 tons in the same period of 2023. Exports to China totaled 482,000 tons, a sharp 17% year-on-year decline (577,000 tons in 2023).
【山东轮胎产业】同期，中国山东轮胎企业开工率呈现分化态势：
- 全钢胎开工负荷为52.89%，较上周下降6.06个百分点，较去年同期下降9.25个百分点
- 半钢胎开工负荷为78.74%，较上周微降0.17个百分点，但较去年同期上升6.84个百分点
【Shandong Tire Industry】During the same period, tire manufacturers in Shandong, China showed divergent operating rates:
- All-steel tire operating rate at 52.89%, down 6.06 percentage points from last week and 9.25 percentage points year-on-year
- Semi-steel tire operating rate at 78.74%, slightly down 0.17 percentage points from last week but up 6.84 percentage points year-on-year
【市场分析】当前市场呈现以下特征：
• 原料价格测试成为今年行业博弈重点
• 需求端表现平淡，全钢/半钢市场持续分化
• 全钢胎库存处于同期高位，下游维持刚需采购
• 基本面矛盾不突出，但现货供应偏紧问题延续
【Market Analysis】Current market shows following characteristics:
• Raw material price testing becomes key industry focus this year
• Weak demand performance with continued all-steel/semi-steel market divergence
• All-steel tire inventory at seasonal highs with downstream maintaining essential purchases
• No prominent fundamental contradictions but tight spot supply continues
【投资建议】橡胶市场(RU09)预计将维持宽幅震荡，建议：
• 中长期：把握天胶重心上移趋势，逢低布局
• 短期：关注NR9-10反套机会
• 重点关注：产区上量节奏和宏观氛围影响
【Investment Advice】Rubber market (RU09) expected to maintain wide fluctuations, recommendations:
• Medium-long term: Capture upward trend in natural rubber, buy on dips
• Short term: Focus on NR9-10 reverse spread opportunities
• Key focus: Production volume rhythm and macroeconomic influences
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