亚马逊封号潮后：资本与卖家的冰与火之歌

亚马逊封号潮后：资本与卖家的冰与火之歌

After Amazon's Account Suspension Wave: The Song of Ice and Fire Between Capital and Sellers

图片来源：图虫创意

2021年的"亚马逊封号潮"对跨境电商行业产生了深远影响，其连锁反应已经传导至资本市场。在封号潮来临前，跨境通以20.2亿元出售帕拓逊100%股权，交易方阵容堪称豪华。

Image source:Tuchong Creative

The "Amazon account suspension wave" in 2021 has had a profound impact on the cross-border e-commerce industry, with its ripple effects already spreading to the capital market. Before the suspension wave hit, Kuajingtong sold 100% of Patsun's equity for 2.02 billion yuan to an impressive lineup of buyers.

一、估值逻辑的崩塌与重建

1. The Collapse and Reconstruction of Valuation Logic

根据跨境通披露的财报，帕拓逊2020年净利润约为3.18亿元，交易市盈率约为6.35倍。这在当时的市场环境下几乎是"半买半送"的价格。然而封号潮后，整个行业的估值体系面临重构。

According to Kuajingtong's financial reports, Patsun's net profit in 2020 was about 318 million yuan, with a P/E ratio of about 6.35 times. This was almost a "half-price sale" in the market environment at that time. However, after the suspension wave, the entire industry's valuation system faced reconstruction.

二、2022年资本偏好变化

2. Changes in Capital Preferences in 2022

通过与多家资本机构交流发现，2022年无论是传统VC/PE还是亚马逊聚合商，都更偏向"风险厌恶"，更青睐能穿越周期的品牌。资本在选择投资对象时更关注稳定的销售和利润曲线，尤其是经营活动产生的现金流变化。

Through exchanges with multiple capital institutions, it was found that in 2022, both traditional VC/PE and Amazon aggregators tend to be more "risk-averse" and prefer brands that can weather economic cycles. When selecting investment targets, capital pays more attention to stable sales and profit curves, especially changes in cash flow generated from operating activities.

三、亚马逊聚合商的洗牌加速

3. Accelerated Reshuffle of Amazon Aggregators

Marketplace Pulse数据显示，过去两年中，上百家聚合商共融资超130亿美元。然而完成收购的项目数量并不多。造成这一现象的原因包括：符合要求的卖家数量有限，以及行业自身的优胜劣汰加速。

Data from Marketplace Pulse shows that in the past two years, hundreds of aggregators have raised over $13 billion in total. However, the number of completed acquisition projects is not large. The reasons for this phenomenon include: the limited number of qualified sellers, and the accelerated survival of the fittest in the industry itself.

四、未来展望

4. Future Outlook

可以预见，未来几年亚马逊聚合商将迎来剧烈分化，在此过程中将诞生新的行业巨头。同时，部分聚合商开始对纯独立站的DTC品牌展现出兴趣，这可能会带来新的估值体系和投资机会。

It is foreseeable that in the coming years, Amazon aggregators will undergo intense differentiation, during which new industry giants will emerge. Meanwhile, some aggregators have begun to show interest in pure DTC brands with independent websites, which may bring new valuation systems and investment opportunities.

关键词：亚马逊封号潮，跨境电商，资本投资，估值逻辑，亚马逊聚合商

Keywords:Amazon account suspension wave, cross-border e-commerce, capital investment, valuation logic, Amazon aggregators