轮胎行业"山东板块"逆势增长 出口与新能源成破局关键
风口财经记者 王贝贝 | Wind Finance Reporter Wang Beibei
"去年的多数利好因素，在今年会转向负面或减速、降幅。"今年年初召开的中国橡胶年会上，中策橡胶集团董事长沈金荣曾做出如是预言。他的预言得到了市场的应验。
"Most favorable factors from last year will turn negative or slow down this year," predicted Shen Jinrong, chairman of Zhongce Rubber Group at the China Rubber Conference earlier this year. His prediction has been validated by the market.
当下，轮胎企业的真正考验开始了。进入今年6月份，不少轮胎企业反映称，轮胎市场突然卖不动了。首当其冲的是全钢胎，据卓创资讯消息，近期国内终端基建、工矿等作业开工较低，货运市场盈利表现欠佳，轮胎替换需求较弱，全钢轮胎销售压力增加。
The real test for tire companies has begun. Since June this year, many tire manufacturers reported sudden sales stagnation. Steel-belted radial tires bear the brunt - according to SCI International data, weak infrastructure and mining activities, coupled with poor freight market profitability, have reduced replacement demand.
行业拐点显现 | Industry Inflection Point Emerges
中国橡胶工业协会副会长兼秘书长雷昌纯表示，受益于出口订单充足，半钢胎企业整体持续高产高销态势，上半年的表现超出市场预期。但据专业机构调研，当前，虽然外贸势头火热，但国内半钢胎需求是稳中偏弱。
Lei Changchun, vice president of China Rubber Industry Association, noted that semi-steel tire manufacturers maintained strong production and sales due to robust export orders, exceeding market expectations in H1. However, domestic demand remains lukewarm despite booming exports.
值得一提的是，轮胎行业的"山东板块"风景这边独好，对处于行业头部的山东轮胎企业而言，增长势能相当硬核。风口财经记者从赛轮、玲珑、森麒麟、昊华、宏盛等多家企业了解到，通过聚焦创新转型，加大海外出口，企业保持了业绩的稳健增长。
Notably, Shandong-based tire manufacturers demonstrate remarkable resilience. Companies like Sailun, Linglong, Sentury, Haohua, and Hongsheng maintain steady growth through innovation and export expansion.
出口驱动增长 | Exports Fuel Expansion
海关总署公布数据显示，前5个月中国橡胶轮胎出口量同比增长4.6%，出口金额同比增长6.1%。旺盛的需求之下，国内轮胎企业正加速全球化扩产布局步伐。
Customs data shows China's rubber tire exports grew 4.6% in volume and 6.1% in value during the first five months. Domestic manufacturers are accelerating global production expansion to meet strong demand.
山东轮胎企业成为主力军。在山东昊华轮胎，繁忙而有序的生产景象已持续多日，工人们正加紧生产以满足国外订单的需求。据了解，昊华轮胎的全钢产能达到480万套，半钢产能达到2000万套，目前正在生产的轮胎将发往巴西、墨西哥等地。
Shandong companies lead this expansion. At Haohua Tire, workers rush to fulfill overseas orders with annual capacities reaching 4.8 million steel-belted and 20 million semi-steel tires, destined for Brazil, Mexico and other markets.
新能源机遇 | NEV Opportunities
乘新能源东风穿越周期轮胎产量和出口量"双增长"，标志着以山东企业为代表的中国轮胎，有望在新一轮机遇中穿越周期，开启发展的新篇章。
The "dual growth" in production and exports, powered by new energy vehicle (NEV) development, signals Chinese tire makers' potential to navigate market cycles and open new chapters.
新能源汽车的崛起将为轮胎行业带来一场变革，抓住机遇的中国轮胎企业在新能源汽车市场迎来弯道超车机会。根据中汽协数据，2023年，我国新能源汽车销量为949.5万辆，同比增长37.9%，市场占有率达31.6%。
NEV growth brings transformation opportunities. China's NEV sales surged 37.9% to 9.495 million units in 2023, capturing 31.6% market share, creating overtaking opportunities for domestic tire brands.
宏光MINI EV选用玲珑轮胎作为标准配置，比亚迪海豚则配备朝阳轮胎，而广汽AION Y最新款车型均采用森麒麟轮胎作为配套。这一趋势彰显了国内轮胎企业在新能源汽车轮胎研发领域的先行布局。
Notable OEM partnerships include Wuling MINI EV with Linglong, BYD Dolphin with Chaoyang, and GAC AION Y with Sentury tires, showcasing domestic manufacturers' early-mover advantage in NEV tire development.
挑战与展望 | Challenges Ahead
不过，也有业内人士提醒，我国轮胎企业在国际市场上拥有成本优势，这种优势更多体现在国内轮胎企业用工成本低。下一步如何提升工人待遇，也是国内轮胎企业需要重视和应对的现实问题。
Industry experts caution that while Chinese manufacturers enjoy labor cost advantages internationally (with personnel costs accounting for just 7.2% at Linglong versus 33% at Michelin), improving worker benefits remains a pressing challenge.
