中国7月进出口增速转正 四季度经济能否迎来反弹？

中国7月进出口增速转正 四季度经济能否迎来反弹？

China's July Import-Export Growth Turns Positive: Will Economic Recovery Follow in Q4?

每经记者：张怀水 每经编辑：陈旭

Reporter: Zhang Huaishui Editor: Chen Xu

8月8日，海关总署公布了今年前7个月我国外贸进出口数据。据海关统计，今年前7个月，我国进出口总值23.55万亿元人民币，同比（下同）增长0.4%。

On August 8, the General Administration of Customs released China's foreign trade import-export data for the first seven months of this year. According to customs statistics, China's total import-export value reached 23.55 trillion yuan in the first seven months, a year-on-year increase of 0.4%.

关键数据亮点：

Key Data Highlights:

• 出口13.47万亿元，增长1.5%
• Exports: 13.47 trillion yuan, up 1.5%
• 进口10.08万亿元，下降1.1%
• Imports: 10.08 trillion yuan, down 1.1%
• 贸易顺差3.39万亿元，扩大10.3%
• Trade surplus: 3.39 trillion yuan, expanded by 10.3%

海关总署统计分析司司长吕大良表示，二季度以来，我国月度进出口规模稳定保持在3.4万亿元以上。7月当月，我国进出口3.46万亿元，处于历史同期较高水平。

Lyu Daliang, Director of the Department of Statistics and Analysis of the General Administration of Customs, stated that since the second quarter, China's monthly import-export scale has remained stable at over 3.4 trillion yuan. In July alone, China's imports and exports reached 3.46 trillion yuan, maintaining a relatively high level compared to historical periods.

汽车出口表现亮眼

Outstanding Performance in Auto Exports

前7个月，我国出口机电产品7.83万亿元，增长4.4%，占出口总值的58.1%。其中汽车（包括底盘）出口金额同比增长118.5%，成为最大亮点。

In the first seven months, China's exports of mechanical and electrical products reached 7.83 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.4%, accounting for 58.1% of total exports. Notably, auto exports (including chassis) surged by 118.5% year-on-year in value, becoming the brightest spot.

"新三样"产品表现：

Performance of "New Three" Products:

• 电动载人汽车：增长182.9%
• Electric passenger vehicles: up 182.9%
• 锂离子蓄电池：增长69.2%
• Lithium-ion batteries: up 69.2%
• 太阳能电池：增长17.9%
• Solar cells: up 17.9%

专家观点：四季度有望反弹

Expert Views: Recovery Expected in Q4

中国世界贸易组织研究会副会长霍建国表示，随着国内稳经济、稳外贸政策的不断发力，加上去年四季度基数降低，出口有望迎来一定程度的反弹。

Huo Jianguo, Vice President of the China Society for WTO Studies, stated that with the continuous implementation of domestic policies to stabilize the economy and foreign trade, coupled with the lower base in the fourth quarter of last year, exports are expected to rebound to some extent.

东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青认为，短期内出口将延续两位数同比负增长态势。这意味着在推动三季度经济复苏的动能方面，要更多倚重内需发力。

Wang Qing, Chief Macro Analyst at Oriental Jincheng, believes that exports will continue to show double-digit year-on-year negative growth in the short term. This means that domestic demand will need to play a more significant role in driving economic recovery in the third quarter.

SEO优化提示：本文包含"外贸数据"、"进出口"、"经济复苏"等高搜索量关键词，适合外贸企业、经济分析师等目标读者。

SEO Tip: This article contains high-search-volume keywords such as "foreign trade data", "imports and exports", and "economic recovery", making it suitable for target audiences including foreign trade enterprises and economic analysts.