2024年RU/NR橡胶市场分析：出口增长与库存动态

2024年RU/NR橡胶市场分析：出口增长与库存动态

2024 RU/NR Rubber Market Analysis: Export Growth and Inventory Trends

最新橡胶期货行情 | Latest Rubber Futures Market

中国天然橡胶主力RU01合约报收16150点（-0.03%）；日本JRU01合约报收326.5点（-0.73%）。20号胶NR10合约报收12625点（-0.12%），新加坡TF11合约上涨0.85%至177.0点。

China's natural rubber main contract RU01 closed at 16,150 points (-0.03%); Japan's JRU01 at 326.5 points (-0.73%). The 20# rubber NR10 contract settled at 12,625 points (-0.12%), while Singapore's TF11 rose 0.85% to 177.0 points.

现货价格表现 | Spot Price Performance

国内WF报价14500-14600元/吨，越南3L混合胶14750-14800元/吨。国际市场上，泰国烟片胶船货报价2180-2200美元/吨，泰标现货1775-1790美元/吨。

Domestic WF quoted at 14,500-14,600 yuan/ton, Vietnamese 3L blend at 14,750-14,800 yuan/ton. Internationally, Thai smoked sheet rubber vessel cargo quoted at $2,180-2,200/ton, Thai standard现货 at $1,775-1,790/ton.

出口数据亮眼 | Strong Export Performance

2024年1-7月中国橡胶轮胎出口量534万吨（+4.9%），出口额941亿元（+5.5%）。其中汽车轮胎出口457万吨（+4.9%），按条数计算出口量增长9.9%至3.915亿条。

From January to July 2024, China's rubber tire exports reached 5.34 million tons (+4.9%), with export value of 94.1 billion yuan (+5.5%). Automotive tire exports totaled 4.57 million tons (+4.9%), with volume growth of 9.9% to 391.5 million pieces.

库存变化趋势 | Inventory Trends

青岛保税区区内库存6.16万吨（同比减少7.5万吨），连续60周去库存；区外库存40.85万吨（同比减少35万吨），连续2周降幅收窄。

Qingdao bonded zone inventory stood at 61,600 tons (down 75,000 tons YoY), marking 60 consecutive weeks of destocking; outside-zone inventory was 408,500 tons (down 350,000 tons YoY), with narrowing declines for 2 consecutive weeks.

交易策略建议 | Trading Strategy Recommendations

RU01合约建议观望，关注16085点支撑位；NR10合约关注12725点压力位。套利策略建议持有RU2501-RU2409价差，止损设置在+1330点低位。

For RU01 contract, recommend watching with support at 16,085 points; NR10 contract faces resistance at 12,725 points. Arbitrage strategy suggests holding RU2501-RU2409 spread with stop-loss at +1,330 points low.