中国外贸顶住"压力测试"：2024年外贸数据分析与未来展望
中国外贸在2024年展现出强劲韧性，在全球经济不确定性增加的背景下仍然取得了亮眼成绩。根据中国官方数据，今年前11个月中国货物贸易进出口总值达39.79万亿元人民币，同比增长4.9%。其中出口23.04万亿元，增长6.7%；进口16.75万亿元，增长2.4%。
China's foreign trade has demonstrated strong resilience in 2024, achieving impressive results amid increasing global economic uncertainties. According to official Chinese data, the total value of China's goods trade imports and exports in the first 11 months reached 39.79 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.9%. Exports totaled 23.04 trillion yuan, up 6.7%, while imports reached 16.75 trillion yuan, growing by 2.4%.
外贸结构持续优化是2024年的显著特征。机电产品等高附加值产品出口增长迅速，集成电路出口突破万亿元大关。市场多元化战略成效显著，与"一带一路"共建国家的贸易增速达6%，高于整体水平。
The continuous optimization of trade structure has been a notable feature in 2024. Exports of high-value-added products like mechanical and electrical equipment grew rapidly, with integrated circuit exports exceeding one trillion yuan. The market diversification strategy proved effective, as trade with Belt and Road partner countries grew by 6%, outpacing the overall growth rate.
跨境电商等新业态蓬勃发展，上半年跨境电商进出口1.25万亿元，创历史同期新高，同比增长13%。国泰货运站常务总裁华马克表示："全球航空货运增长很大程度上受中国电商业务驱动。"
New business models like cross-border e-commerce flourished, with import and export volume reaching 1.25 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, a record high for the same period and a 13% year-on-year increase. Mark Watts, Managing Director of Cathay Cargo Terminal, stated: "The growth in global air cargo is largely driven by China's e-commerce business."
展望2025年，中国外贸面临更严峻挑战：全球经济增速放缓、贸易保护主义抬头、地缘政治风险加剧。中央经济工作会议已部署稳外贸措施，包括扩大自主开放、推进海南自贸港建设、发展数字贸易等。
Looking ahead to 2025, China's foreign trade faces more severe challenges: slowing global economic growth, rising trade protectionism, and escalating geopolitical risks. The Central Economic Work Conference has rolled out measures to stabilize foreign trade, including expanding autonomous opening-up, advancing Hainan Free Trade Port construction, and developing digital trade.
专家建议中国应：
1. 推动一般贸易和加工贸易协同发展
2. 保持数字贸易稳健成长
3. 充分利用自贸试验区和RCEP等协定
4. 拓展多元化国际市场
Experts recommend China should:
1. Promote coordinated development of general trade and processing trade
2. Maintain steady growth of digital trade
3. Fully utilize free trade pilot zones and agreements like RCEP
4. Expand diversified international markets
广州粤港澳大湾区研究院理事长郑永年指出："中国的单边开放政策正在重塑全球化，为全球经济发展创造新条件。"这将成为中国外贸应对未来挑战的重要优势。
Zheng Yongnian, Chairman of the Guangzhou Greater Bay Area Research Institute, noted: "China's unilateral opening-up policies are reshaping globalization and creating new conditions for global economic development." This will become a significant advantage for China's foreign trade in facing future challenges.
