2024年1-2月中国进出口数据分析：需求扩张与基数效应推动外贸增长
核心观点：
● 外需扩张叠加基数效应，出口增速继续上涨
● 基数效应推动进口额增速小幅上涨
● 未来展望：主要经济体经济恢复，外贸增速或将筑底回升
Key Points:
● Export growth continues to rise due to external demand expansion and base effect
● Import growth shows slight increase driven by base effect
● Outlook: Economic recovery in major economies may lead to bottoming out and rebound in trade growth
总体表现 | Overall Performance
2024年1-2月份，按美元计价，中国进出口总值9308.6亿美元，同比增长5.5%。其中，出口5280.1亿美元，同比增长7.1%；进口4028.5亿美元，同比增长3.5%；贸易顺差1251.6亿美元。
From January to February 2024, China's total import and export value reached $930.86 billion in USD terms, a year-on-year increase of 5.5%. Exports amounted to $528.01 billion (up 7.1%), imports were $402.85 billion (up 3.5%), resulting in a trade surplus of $125.16 billion.
出口分析 | Export Analysis
2024年1-2月份，中国出口总额5280.1亿美元，同比增长7.1%，较前期上涨4.8个百分点。低基数效应明显，是推动出口额增速上涨的主要因素之一。
China's exports totaled $528.01 billion in Jan-Feb 2024, up 7.1% year-on-year, an increase of 4.8 percentage points from the previous period. The low base effect was one of the main factors driving export growth.
主要出口市场：
对欧盟(-1.3%)、美国(5.0%)、东盟(6.0%)和日本(-9.7%)出口增速差异明显，其中对美国、东盟出口增速显著上涨。
Major Export Markets:
Export growth to the EU (-1.3%), US (5.0%), ASEAN (6.0%) and Japan (-9.7%) showed significant variations, with notable increases to the US and ASEAN.
主要出口商品：
机电产品占出口总额59.08%，同比增长8.5%。集成电路出口增长24.3%，汽车出口增长12.6%。
Major Export Products:
Mechanical and electrical products accounted for 59.08% of total exports, up 8.5% year-on-year. Integrated circuit exports grew 24.3%, while auto exports increased 12.6%.
进口分析 | Import Analysis
2024年1-2月，中国进口总额4028.5亿美元，同比增长3.5%，增速较前期上涨3.3个百分点。制造业PMI有所回升，反映企业对未来预期乐观。
China's imports totaled $402.85 billion in Jan-Feb 2024, up 3.5% year-on-year, an increase of 3.3 percentage points from the previous period. The manufacturing PMI showed improvement, reflecting optimistic business expectations.
未来展望 | Future Outlook
出口方面：全球经济恢复叠加低基数效应，预计2024年出口增速或将企稳。新能源汽车行业或继续为外贸出口新引擎。
Exports: Global economic recovery combined with low base effect is expected to stabilize export growth in 2024. The new energy vehicle industry may continue to be a new engine for foreign trade.
进口方面：国内稳经济政策将持续发力，但房地产市场探底和全球贸易壁垒可能抑制进口增速。
Imports: Domestic economic stabilization policies will continue to take effect, but the bottoming out of the real estate market and global trade barriers may restrain import growth.
关于我们 | About Us
北京大学国民经济研究中心成立于2004年，重点研究中国经济波动和增长、宏观调控理论与实践等课题。中心研究成果对中国宏观经济政策产生了重要影响。
Established in 2004, Peking University National Economic Research Center focuses on China's economic fluctuations and growth, macroeconomic regulation theories and practices. The center's research has significantly influenced China's macroeconomic policies.
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Disclaimer: This report is for academic purposes only. The center assumes no responsibility for any losses resulting from the use of this report.
