羽绒行业周报：寒潮带动需求激增 出口市场呈现新格局

羽绒行业周报：寒潮带动需求激增 出口市场呈现新格局

Down Industry Weekly: Cold Wave Drives Demand Surge, Export Market Shows New Pattern

市场行情分析 | Market Analysis

2023年第52周（12.18-12.24），我国羽绒市场呈现整体上涨趋势。受持续寒潮影响，全国大范围冰冻天气显著提升了羽绒制品销售，特别是中高端羽绒服需求激增带动鹅绒价格攀升。气象数据显示，尽管已进入"数九寒天"，但新一轮回暖即将开始，预计"一九"期间将以偏暖天气收场。

According to the 52nd week of 2023 (12.18-12.24) market data, China's down industry showed an overall upward trend. The continuous cold wave and widespread freezing weather across the country significantly boosted sales of down products, with surging demand for mid-to-high-end down jackets driving up the price of goose down. Meteorological data indicates that although the traditional coldest period has begun, a new round of warming is expected, with the first "nine-day period" likely to end with relatively warm weather.

出口数据亮点 | Export Highlights

11月出口数据显示，我国羽绒对欧洲出口占比达41%，反映欧美国家在寒流影响下需求扩大。浙江省以12,831吨出口量位居全国第一，安徽省紧随其后。值得注意的是，湖南省实现同比55%的出口量增长和61%的金额增长，成为区域市场新亮点。

November export data shows that China's down exports to Europe accounted for 41% of total exports, reflecting increased demand from European and American countries affected by cold waves. Zhejiang Province ranked first nationally with 12,831 tons of exports, followed by Anhui Province. Notably, Hunan Province achieved 55% year-on-year growth in export volume and 61% in value, emerging as a new regional market highlight.

产业热点聚焦 | Industry Focus

平湖羽绒服市场成为今冬"顶流"，日均客流量达9万人次，已售出1亿件羽绒服，销售额突破200亿元。随着抖音全国唯一羽绒服电商直播基地落户，平湖正推动季节性产品向全年销售转型。全国"速冻"天气使羽绒服面料需求激增，纺织市场出现温和放量。

Pinghu down jacket market has become this winter's "top trend" with daily foot traffic reaching 90,000, having sold 100 million down jackets and achieved sales exceeding 20 billion yuan. With Douyin's national exclusive down jacket e-commerce live broadcast base established, Pinghu is transforming seasonal products into year-round sales. Nationwide "flash freeze" weather has sharply increased demand for down jacket fabrics, leading to moderate growth in the textile market.

气象趋势预测 | Weather Forecast

美国海洋大气管理局预测，2024年7-9月出现拉尼娜现象概率大增，可能带来东亚冷冬。气象部门预计我国冬季后期（2024年1-2月）冷空气过程偏多，这对羽绒产品需求将形成长期支撑。

The NOAA predicts a significantly increased probability of La Niña occurring from July to September 2024, potentially bringing cold winters to East Asia. Meteorological departments forecast more cold air processes in the later winter of China (January-February 2024), which will provide long-term support for down product demand.

风险提示 | Risk Warning

11月羽绒服装出口环比下降22%，旺季可能提前结束。棉制羽绒服受海外流通禁令影响表现不佳，出口量同比去年下降38%。进口方面同样呈现下滑趋势，环比减少50.2%。

November down clothing exports decreased by 22% month-on-month, indicating the peak season may have ended early. Cotton down jackets performed poorly due to overseas circulation restrictions, with exports down 38% year-on-year. Imports also showed a downward trend, decreasing by 50.2% month-on-month.