2023年中国外贸展望：外需走弱下的挑战与机遇
中国外贸2022年表现强劲，但2023年面临更大压力
China's foreign trade performed strongly in 2022, but faces greater pressure in 2023
2022年，中国外贸顶住多重压力实现稳定增长。海关数据显示，1-11月中国进出口总值达38.34万亿元人民币，同比增长8.6%。其中出口增长11.9%，进口增长4.6%，贸易顺差扩大42.8%。
In 2022, China's foreign trade achieved stable growth despite multiple pressures. Customs data shows that from January to November, China's total import and export value reached 38.34 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.6%. Exports grew by 11.9%, imports increased by 4.6%, and the trade surplus expanded by 42.8%.
2023年主要挑战：全球需求萎缩
Main challenge for 2023: Global demand contraction
国际货币基金组织预测2023年全球经济增速将放缓至2.7%，且有25%的概率低于2%。世界贸易组织预计2023年全球商品贸易量增长仅1%，远低于此前预测的3.4%。
The IMF predicts global economic growth will slow to 2.7% in 2023, with a 25% probability of falling below 2%. The WTO expects global merchandise trade volume to grow by only 1% in 2023, significantly lower than the previous forecast of 3.4%.
中国应对措施：政企协同"抢订单"
China's response: Government-enterprise collaboration to "secure orders"
江苏、浙江、广东等外贸大省已组织企业赴欧洲、日本等地开拓市场。在德国慕尼黑国际体育用品展上，50多家中国企业签署订单金额约1800万欧元，意向订单约3500万欧元。
Major foreign trade provinces like Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Guangdong have organized enterprises to explore markets in Europe and Japan. At the ISPO Munich trade fair, over 50 Chinese companies signed orders worth about 18 million euros, with intended orders of about 35 million euros.
政策支持：中央经济工作会议定调稳外贸
Policy support: Central Economic Work Conference sets tone for stabilizing foreign trade
中央经济工作会议明确要更大力度推动外贸稳规模、优结构。分析人士预计将有一系列激发企业活力、减轻负担、推进市场多元化的政策出台。
The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized stronger efforts to stabilize the scale and optimize the structure of foreign trade. Analysts expect a series of policies to stimulate enterprise vitality, reduce burdens and promote market diversification.
专家观点：民营企业将发挥关键作用
Expert view: Private enterprises will play key role
商务部原副部长魏建国表示，民营企业经验丰富、反应灵敏、创新能力强，积极出海"抢订单"将为稳外贸提供有力支撑。
Former Vice Minister of Commerce Wei Jianguo said private enterprises with rich experience, quick response and strong innovation capabilities will provide strong support for stabilizing foreign trade by actively going global to "secure orders".
尽管面临挑战，但随着政策效应释放和企业积极性调动，专家预计2023年中国外贸将继续平稳增长，为经济复苏作出贡献。
Despite challenges, experts expect China's foreign trade to maintain steady growth in 2023 and contribute to economic recovery as policy effects are realized and enterprise enthusiasm is mobilized.
