逆全球化时代的企业出海战略：如何通过海外市场突破增长瓶颈
逆全球化时代的企业出海战略：如何通过海外市场突破增长瓶颈
Going Global Strategy in Deglobalization Era: Breaking Growth Barriers Through Overseas Markets
在全球经济格局重塑的背景下，中国企业正面临前所未有的机遇与挑战。长城证券首席经济学家汪毅的最新研究显示，"出海"正成为消化国内过剩产能、突破增长瓶颈的关键战略。
Amid the reshaping global economic landscape, Chinese enterprises are facing unprecedented opportunities and challenges. The latest research from Wang Yi, Chief Economist of Great Wall Securities, shows that "going global" is becoming a key strategy to digest domestic overcapacity and break growth barriers.
一、国内产能过剩与海外市场机遇
1. Domestic Overcapacity and Overseas Market Opportunities
当前中国经济面临双重压力：内需疲软与产能过剩。2023年第三季度制造业产能利用率仅为75.80%，低于国际标准的80%。与此同时，美日韩等主要经济体正经历补库存周期，为2024年出口回暖创造了有利条件。
The Chinese economy faces dual pressures: weak domestic demand and overcapacity. In Q3 2023, the manufacturing capacity utilization rate was only 75.80%, below the international standard of 80%. Meanwhile, major economies like the US, Japan and South Korea are experiencing inventory replenishment cycles, creating favorable conditions for export recovery in 2024.
二、从出口到出海的战略升级
2. Strategic Upgrade: From Export to Going Global
在全球产业链重构背景下，单纯出口模式面临挑战。"出海"战略包含海外建厂、本地化运营等完整产业链布局，能有效规避贸易壁垒，降低成本。日本经验显示，海外投资与企业利润呈显著正相关。
Amid global supply chain restructuring, the pure export model faces challenges. The "going global" strategy includes complete industrial chain layouts like overseas factories and localized operations, effectively avoiding trade barriers and reducing costs. Japan's experience shows overseas investment is positively correlated with corporate profits.
三、最具出海潜力的三大行业
3. Three Industries with Greatest Global Potential
1. 创新药行业：国内利润空间压缩倒逼药企出海。2022年医药制造业利润下降31.8%，License-out模式成为新趋势，2022年交易金额达236.82亿美元。
1. Innovative Pharmaceuticals: Shrinking domestic profits force drugmakers overseas. In 2022, pharmaceutical manufacturing profits fell 31.8%, with License-out becoming a new trend, reaching $23.68 billion in transaction value.
2. 新能源汽车：中国已成为全球最大汽车出口国。2023年出口占比达3.01%，新能源汽车凭借质量价格优势快速占领全球市场。
2. New Energy Vehicles: China has become the world's largest auto exporter. In 2023, export share reached 3.01%, with NEVs rapidly capturing global markets through quality-price advantages.
3. 跨境电商：SHEIN、Temu和TikTok Shop引领新浪潮。2023年Temu季度销售额突破50亿美元，TikTok东南亚活跃用户达1.35亿。
3. Cross-border E-commerce: SHEIN, Temu and TikTok Shop lead the new wave. In 2023, Temu's quarterly sales exceeded $5 billion, while TikTok reached 135 million active users in Southeast Asia.
风险提示：海外政策变动、地缘政治冲突、供应链受阻、贸易保护主义加强
Risk Warning: Overseas policy changes, geopolitical conflicts, supply chain disruptions, rising trade protectionism
