钢铁产业链月度观察：降产缓解累库压力 出口助力弱势反弹
11月上海螺纹现货价格从月初的3520元/吨跌至月末的3450元/吨，验证了11月月报"铁水高产压利润，需求小跌显韧性"的供需特征判断，反映出市场在高供给与需求韧性之间的博弈格局。
Shanghou rebar spot price dropped from 3,520 yuan/ton at the beginning of November to 3,450 yuan/ton at month-end, confirming the supply-demand dynamics described in our November report - "high pig iron output pressures profits while demand shows resilience". This reflects the market's struggle between high supply and resilient demand.
核心观点：
Key Insights:
根据钢厂排产计划，12月247家钢企的月均铁水产量或降至230万吨/日（低于11月的234.9万吨/日和本周的233.9万吨/日）但仍属于较高的生产水平。因此，12月供给端的调节力度将成为市场价格变化的关键变量。
According to steel mill production plans, the average daily pig iron output at 247 steel mills may drop to 2.3 million tons/day in December (lower than November's 2.349 million tons/day and this week's 2.339 million tons/day), but still remains at relatively high levels. Therefore, supply-side adjustments will become the key variable for price movements in December.
1. 供应端压力延续
1. Continued Supply-Side Pressure
尽管钢厂利润已被大幅压缩，铁水产量逐渐见顶回落，但短期内供给的下降幅度可能较为有限。目前，大多数钢厂的生产处于盈亏平衡线附近（根据模型测算，江苏地区钢厂螺纹钢即期利润约为8元/吨），这使得企业主动检修或减产的意愿较弱。
Although steel mill profits have been significantly compressed and pig iron output is gradually peaking and declining, the short-term supply reduction may be limited. Currently, most mills are operating near breakeven levels (model calculations show Jiangsu rebar producers have immediate profits of about 8 yuan/ton), resulting in weak voluntary maintenance or production cut initiatives.
2. 需求季节性回落拐点加速来临
2. Seasonal Demand Decline Accelerating
在寒潮天气影响下，南北方施工进度受阻，建筑钢材需求开始持续下滑。此外，年底企业面临资金回笼压力，整体资金状况不佳（如部分水泥贸易商账期从3个月延长至6个月），导致企业对后续工程资金投入更加谨慎。
Cold weather has hindered construction progress across China, leading to sustained declines in construction steel demand. Additionally, year-end capital pressures and generally tight liquidity (with some cement traders extending payment terms from 3 to 6 months) are making companies more cautious about project investments.
3. 预计钢材直接出口环比回暖
3. Expected Recovery in Direct Steel Exports
随着国内价格持续回调，与海外市场的价差逐步扩大（如中国热卷出口价格FOB与越南价差为13美元/吨）；据Mysteel调研，热卷出口订单相对饱满，预计12月钢材出口环比显著改善。
As domestic prices continue to adjust, the price gap with overseas markets is widening (e.g., the FOB price difference between Chinese HRC and Vietnam reached $13/ton). Mysteel surveys show relatively strong HRC export orders, suggesting significant month-on-month improvement in December steel exports.
螺纹钢市场分析
Rebar Market Analysis
预计十二月螺纹供应端下滑或逐渐提速，Mysteel小样本月均产量水平或从十一月份的232万吨降至219万吨。电炉生产临近盈亏边界，短流程减产压力加大。
Rebar supply declines may accelerate in December, with Mysteel's small-sample average monthly production potentially dropping from 2.32 million tons in November to 2.19 million tons. EAF production approaches breakeven, increasing pressure for short-process production cuts.
热卷市场展望
HRC Market Outlook
11月热卷小样本周均表需环比上升0.5万吨至318万吨，库销比下滑至6.78天，接近年内最低6.74天。预计12月热卷总体需求仍将缓慢下滑，主因出口改善维持韧性。
Weekly average HRC apparent demand in November rose 5,000 tons month-on-month to 3.18 million tons, with inventory-sales ratio falling to 6.78 days, nearing the year's low of 6.74 days. December HRC demand is expected to decline slowly, supported by resilient exports.
原材料市场
Raw Materials Market
铁矿：随着终端用钢需求开始季节性回落，钢厂亏损扩大，厂内钢材库存累积，钢厂主动检修计划增多，原料需求支撑减弱，因此12月铁矿均价较11月或下跌。
Iron Ore: As seasonal steel demand declines, mill losses expand, and inventories accumulate, increased maintenance plans will weaken raw material demand support, likely leading to lower average iron ore prices in December compared to November.
双焦市场
Coking Coal & Coke Market
11月焦煤现货价格已跌至近两年新低，但市场仍有看降预期，主因煤矿产量增加，焦煤日均供给持续上升，库存压力不断加剧。
Coking coal spot prices fell to nearly two-year lows in November, but further declines are expected due to increased mine output, rising daily supply, and growing inventory pressure.
