建筑钢材需求疲软 螺纹钢进入寻底阶段 | 市场分析与展望
建筑钢材需求疲软 螺纹钢进入寻底阶段 | 市场分析与展望
Weak Demand for Construction Steel Pushes Rebar into Bottom-Finding Phase | Market Analysis and Outlook
近期螺纹钢市场呈现震荡走势，4月3日螺纹钢主力2410合约收于3462元/吨，跌幅1.4%。受期货上涨影响，现货市场也有所回暖，全国主要城市螺纹钢均价上涨22元至3613元/吨。然而，业内人士普遍认为这仅是情绪修复带来的短期反弹，建筑钢材需求疲软的基本面仍未改变。
Rebar market shows volatile trend recently, with the main 2410 contract closing at 3,462 yuan/ton on April 3, down 1.4%. Affected by the futures rise, the spot market also warmed up slightly, with the national average rebar price rising by 22 yuan to 3,613 yuan/ton. However, industry insiders generally believe this is only a short-term rebound driven by sentiment repair, while the weak fundamentals of construction steel demand remain unchanged.
需求端持续疲软
Persistent Weakness in Demand Side
据行业专家分析，2024年一季度黑色系整体暴跌主要源于：
- 春节后库存累积高于去年
- 地产需求持续弱势（新开工面积同比降幅近30%）
- 基建用钢需求因资金问题缺席
- 出口订单受海外钢价下行影响转差
According to industry experts, the overall plunge in the black commodity sector in Q1 2024 mainly stems from:
- Higher post-holiday inventory accumulation than last year
- Continued weakness in real estate demand (new construction area down nearly 30% YoY)
- Absence of infrastructure steel demand due to funding issues
- Export orders deteriorating affected by falling overseas steel prices
钢厂生产维持低位
Steel Mills Maintain Low Production
最新数据显示，螺纹钢周度产量为209.74万吨，农历同比下降31%。虽然部分品种已实现微利（50-150元/吨），但钢厂对后市仍持悲观态度，复产积极性不高。特别是：
- 长流程钢厂更倾向生产利润更高的非建材类产品
- 短流程钢厂因电力成本多数仍处亏损状态
Latest data shows weekly rebar production at 2.0974 million tons, down 31% compared to the lunar calendar year. Although some products have achieved small profits (50-150 yuan/ton), steel mills remain pessimistic about the market outlook with low enthusiasm for resuming production. Especially:
- Blast furnace mills prefer producing non-construction materials with higher profits
- Most electric arc furnaces remain unprofitable due to electricity costs
库存压力显著
Significant Inventory Pressure
当前螺纹钢总库存约1218.45万吨，其中厂库积压严重（345.52万吨）。与往年相比，今年库存呈现三大特点：
- 累库时间提前（去年12月开始）
- 累库周期延长（达16周）
- 累库量增加（805万吨）
Current total rebar inventory is about 12.1845 million tons, with serious accumulation in mill inventories (3.4552 million tons). Compared with previous years, this year's inventory shows three characteristics:
- Earlier inventory accumulation (starting from December last year)
- Extended accumulation cycle (up to 16 weeks)
- Increased accumulation volume (8.05 million tons)
原料端价格下跌
Declining Raw Material Prices
铁矿石2405合约一季度最大跌幅达26.7%，主要原因包括：
- 钢厂维持低库存策略
- 全球发运量增加
- 铁水产量低位运行（均值220万吨/日）
The iron ore 2405 contract saw a maximum drop of 26.7% in Q1, mainly due to:
- Steel mills maintaining low inventory strategies
- Increased global shipments
- Low hot metal production (average 2.2 million tons/day)
后市展望
Market Outlook
专家对二季度走势存在分歧：
| 观点 | 支持理由 |
|---|---|
| 震荡偏弱 | 需求恢复缓慢，铁水产量难突破230万吨/日 |
| 先抑后扬 | 政策发力+旺季到来，需求将逐步改善 |
Experts have different views on Q2 trends:
| View | Supporting Reasons |
|---|---|
| Volatile and weak | Slow demand recovery, hot metal production difficult to exceed 2.3 million tons/day |
| First decline then rise | Policy support + peak season arrival, demand will gradually improve |
关键提示：投资者需密切关注4月资金到位情况，若顺利可能推动5月需求回补，但整体需求强度仍受限。
Key Tip: Investors need to closely monitor the funding situation in April. Smooth funding may boost demand replenishment in May, but overall demand intensity remains limited.
