橡胶期货创7年新高！极端气候+轮胎出口激增引爆牛市行情
橡胶期货创7年新高！极端气候+轮胎出口激增引爆牛市行情
Rubber Futures Hit 7-Year High! Extreme Weather & Tire Export Boom Fuel Bull Market
本报记者/Reporter 叶青/Ye Qing 北京报道/Beijing Report
北京时间9月19日，橡胶期货价格飙升至18020元/吨，创下7年来新高。自7月31日以来，主力合约2501在35个交易日内暴涨17.47%，引发市场高度关注。
On September 19 Beijing time, rubber futures prices surged to 18,020 yuan/ton, hitting a 7-year high. Since July 31, the main contract 2501 has skyrocketed 17.47% in 35 trading days, drawing significant market attention.
气候异常冲击供应链/Climate Anomalies Disrupt Supply Chain
大地期货分析师唐逸指出，近期台风和持续降雨严重影响了橡胶主产区的产量。海南部分橡胶树出现倒伏，加工厂被迫停工防汛。
Tang Yi, analyst at Dadi Futures, noted that recent typhoons and persistent rainfall have severely impacted production in major rubber-growing regions. Some rubber trees in Hainan were uprooted, forcing processing plants to suspend operations for flood prevention.
关键数据/Key Data：
- 青岛地区橡胶库存43.01万吨，环比下降2.74%
- Qingdao rubber inventory: 430,100 tons, down 2.74% month-on-month
- 半钢轮胎出口同比增长9.2%，全钢轮胎下滑2.3%
- Semi-steel tire exports up 9.2% YoY, while all-steel tires down 2.3%
轮胎行业分化明显/Tire Industry Shows Divergence
一德期货胡欣表示："半钢轮胎受益于海外订单和雪地胎备货，开工率达79.92%。而全钢轮胎受基建放缓影响，开工率仅62.08%。"
Hu Xin of Yide Futures stated: "Semi-steel tires benefit from overseas orders and winter tire preparations, with operating rates reaching 79.92%. All-steel tires, affected by infrastructure slowdown, have only 62.08% operating rate."
后市展望/Market Outlook：
业内人士指出，四季度需重点关注两大因素：
Industry experts highlight two key factors for Q4:
- 主产区天气状况对割胶进度的影响
- Weather conditions in major production areas affecting tapping progress
- 下游轮胎企业对价格上涨的承受能力
- Downstream tire manufacturers' tolerance for price increases
唐逸预测："全球橡胶供需日趋紧张，叠加东南亚经济发展带来的需求增长，橡胶价格仍将保持强势。"
Tang Yi forecasts: "With tightening global rubber supply-demand balance and growing demand from Southeast Asia's economic development, rubber prices will remain strong."
责任编辑/Editor：帅可聪/Shuai Kecong 主编/Editor-in-Chief：夏申茶/Xia Shencha
