印度征收15%不锈钢出口税 中国不锈钢出口迎来新机遇
前言/Introduction:
印度财政部近日宣布对不锈钢卷板、棒材、角材等型材产品征收15%出口税，同时降低焦煤、焦炭进口关税。这一政策旨在降低国内钢铁生产成本，控制钢材价格飙升和通货膨胀。作为全球第三大不锈钢生产国，印度的这一举措将影响其不锈钢出口量，同时为中国不锈钢出口创造有利条件。
The Indian Ministry of Finance recently announced a 15% export tax on stainless steel products including coils, bars, and angles, while reducing import tariffs on coking coal and coke. This policy aims to lower domestic steel production costs and control soaring steel prices and inflation. As the world's third-largest stainless steel producer, this move will impact India's stainless steel exports while creating favorable conditions for Chinese exports.
一、印度不锈钢生产情况/India's Stainless Steel Production:
印度是全球第三大不锈钢生产国，仅次于中国和印尼。数据显示，印度2022财年不锈钢成品产量达350万吨，同比增长29%。其中板材产量276万吨，长材73.2万吨。印度人均不锈钢消费量为2.6公斤，预计2022-2025财年产量将升至460-480万吨，年复合增长率6.6-7.5%。
India is the world's third-largest stainless steel producer after China and Indonesia. Data shows India's stainless steel production reached 3.5 million tons in FY2022, up 29% year-on-year. Plate production was 2.76 million tons, while long products were 732,000 tons. With per capita consumption at 2.6kg, production is expected to reach 4.6-4.8 million tons in FY2022-2025, with a CAGR of 6.6-7.5%.
二、印度不锈钢出口情况/India's Stainless Steel Exports:
2022年3月，印度不锈钢出口量约10.5万吨，同比增长26.4%。主要出口产品为宽≥600mm的卷板(36%)和型材(28%)，这些产品正是此次加征关税的对象。主要出口地为欧洲(54.1%)、亚洲(22%)和北美(14.6%)。
In March 2022, India exported about 105,000 tons of stainless steel, up 26.4% year-on-year. Main exports were coils ≥600mm wide (36%) and profiles (28%), which are now subject to the new tax. Major export destinations were Europe (54.1%), Asia (22%), and North America (14.6%).
三、对中国不锈钢进出口影响/Impact on China's Stainless Steel Trade:
1. 进口影响/Import Impact: 中国从印度进口不锈钢量仅占0.09%，影响甚微。
China's imports from India account for only 0.09% of total imports, with minimal impact.
2. 出口影响/Export Impact: 印度产品在欧盟市场竞争力将因15%出口税和现有反倾销税而进一步削弱。中国不锈钢出口主要面向亚洲(69%)，与印度主要出口市场(欧美)重叠度低。预计印度每月出口量将减少约1.5万吨，相当于中国当前出口量的4%。
India's competitiveness in the EU market will weaken further due to the 15% export tax and existing anti-dumping duties. China mainly exports to Asia (69%), with low overlap with India's main markets (Europe/America). India's exports are expected to decrease by about 15,000 tons monthly, equivalent to 4% of China's current exports.
综述/Conclusion:
印度加征出口税将提升其不锈钢产品价格，削弱出口竞争力，同时提振国际市场价格。这为中国不锈钢出口，特别是宽度≥600mm的卷板(占中国出口70%)创造了替代机遇，有助于缓解国内供应压力。
India's export tax will increase its stainless steel prices, reduce export competitiveness, while boosting global market prices. This creates substitution opportunities for Chinese exports, especially coils ≥600mm wide (70% of China's exports), helping alleviate domestic supply pressure.
