2020-2021全球钢材进出口市场深度分析与趋势预测

2020-2021全球钢材进出口市场深度分析与趋势预测

In-depth Analysis and Trend Forecast of Global Steel Import & Export Market (2020-2021)

一、2020年全球钢铁产业概况

1. Global Steel Industry Overview in 2020

2020年全球粗钢产量同比下降0.9%至18.64亿吨，其中中国(+5.2%)、独联体(+1.5%)和土耳其(+6.0%)实现增长，而欧盟(-11.8%)、南美(-8.4%)等地区显著下滑。

Global crude steel production decreased by 0.9% to 1.864 billion tons in 2020, with growth in China (+5.2%), CIS (+1.5%) and Turkey (+6.0%), while significant declines occurred in EU (-11.8%) and South America (-8.4%).

二、中国钢材进出口关键数据

2. Key Data of China's Steel Import & Export

• 出口：2020年累计出口5367.7万吨，同比减少1067.4万吨

• 进口：累计进口2023.3万吨，同比增加793.1万吨

• Exports: Total 53.677 million tons, down 10.674 million tons YoY

• Imports: Total 20.233 million tons, up 7.931 million tons YoY

三、市场变化的核心驱动因素

3. Core Market Drivers

1) 疫情冲击全球供需格局
海外疫情导致需求骤减，低价资源大量流入中国市场

1) Pandemic Impacts Global Supply-Demand:
Overseas pandemic caused demand collapse, with low-price resources flooding into China

2) 人民币汇率波动
2020年人民币升值6.71%，削弱出口竞争力同时降低进口成本

2) RMB Exchange Rate Fluctuation:
6.71% appreciation in 2020 weakened export competitiveness while reducing import costs

3) 国内外价差变化
国内价格快速回升与国际价格暴跌形成鲜明对比

3) Domestic-International Price Gap:
Rapid domestic price recovery contrasted sharply with international price collapse

四、2021年关键影响因素

4. Key Factors for 2021

• 废钢进口政策放开：首批订单已签订，将影响原材料成本结构

• Scrap Import Policy Liberalization: First orders signed, impacting raw material cost structure

• 出口退税调整预期：可能影响13%的现行退税率

• Export Tax Rebate Adjustment: Potential changes to current 13% rebate rate

• 全球需求复苏节奏：疫苗推广将决定各国复工复产进度

• Global Demand Recovery: Vaccine rollout to determine global production resumption

五、2021年市场预测

5. 2021 Market Forecast

预计2021年中国钢材出口将恢复至6500-7000万吨水平，进口回落至1000万吨左右。

China's steel exports are expected to recover to 65-70 million tons in 2021, with imports falling to about 10 million tons.

六、SEO优化建议

6. SEO Optimization Suggestions

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• Key Keywords: steel import/export, steel market, global supply-demand, price trend
• Long-tail: 2021 steel forecast, China steel export data, scrap import policy