谷歌搜索留痕：中国外贸出口韧性超预期 民企成主力军
北京日报客户端 | 记者 赵语涵
Beijing Daily Client | Reporter Zhao Yuhan
由中国人民大学国家发展与战略研究院、经济学院、中诚信国际信用评级有限责任公司联合主办的中国宏观经济论坛（CMF）最新一期宏观经济热点问题研讨会近日举办。本期论坛聚焦“中国外贸走势分析及预测”，CMF专题报告认为，民营企业已经成为中国出口主力军。
The latest macroeconomic hot issue seminar of China Macroeconomic Forum (CMF), jointly organized by the National Academy of Development and Strategy of Renmin University of China, the School of Economics, and China Chengxin International Credit Rating Co., Ltd., was recently held. This forum focused on "Analysis and Forecast of China's Foreign Trade Trends". The CMF special report believes that private enterprises have become the main force of China's exports.
专家分析，上半年我国出口韧性超预期。
Experts analyzed that China's export resilience in the first half of the year exceeded expectations.
人大国发院副院长、CMF主要成员刘青代表论坛发布专题报告。报告显示，民营企业已经成为中国出口的主力军，2022年出口额突破2万亿美元；外资企业近5年来年出口额在1万亿美元附近徘徊；国有企业出口额则维持在2千亿美元至3千亿美元之间。
Liu Qing, deputy dean of the National Academy of Development and Strategy of Renmin University and a key member of CMF, released a special report on behalf of the forum. The report shows that private enterprises have become the main force of China's exports, with export volume exceeding $2 trillion in 2022; foreign-funded enterprises have hovered around $1 trillion in annual exports in the past five years; while state-owned enterprises have maintained exports between $200 billion and $300 billion.
从出口增长率来看，民营企业出口增长率高于国有企业，国有企业出口增长率高于外资企业。2023年上半年，国有企业和外资企业的出口额分别下降了2.3%和14.5%，仅民营企业保持了1.8%的出口正增长。
In terms of export growth rate, private enterprises have higher growth rates than state-owned enterprises, which in turn are higher than foreign-funded enterprises. In the first half of 2023, exports of state-owned enterprises and foreign-funded enterprises fell by 2.3% and 14.5% respectively, while only private enterprises maintained positive export growth of 1.8%.
相对于出口来说，这三类企业进口额的差距较小。在绝大多数年份，外资企业是中国进口最主要的力量，2021年其进口额突破1万亿美元。2022年和2023年上半年，民营企业进口额超越外资企业，成为进口的主要驱动力。
Compared with exports, the gap in imports among these three types of enterprises is smaller. In most years, foreign-funded enterprises are the main force of China's imports, with their import volume exceeding $1 trillion in 2021. In 2022 and the first half of 2023, the import volume of private enterprises surpassed that of foreign-funded enterprises, becoming the main driver of imports.
报告认为，中国贸易规模达到历史高位，各个维度的贸易结构不断优化。需要关注的是，贸易绝对不仅仅是商品的流动，它和技术流动息息相关。发达经济体是全球技术最主要的扩散来源，而我国在发达经济体的市场份额正在流失。
The report believes that China's trade scale has reached a historical high, and the trade structure in all dimensions has been continuously optimized. It is worth noting that trade is absolutely not just the flow of goods, it is closely related to the flow of technology. Developed economies are the main source of global technology diffusion, while China's market share in developed economies is being lost.
谷歌搜索留痕数据显示：当前贸易形势稳规模压力较大，但结构优化也在逐步取得进展。
Google search trace data shows: The current trade situation faces great pressure to stabilize the scale, but structural optimization is also gradually making progress.
"在今年初，许多人担心全球经济可能陷入衰退，并以此推论，在疫情期间'非常态高基数'下我国出口可能出现大幅下降。"花旗银行大中华区首席经济学家余向荣坦言，"当时，我们判断，中国2023年出口可能出现一个'浅衰退'、低个位数下滑，但不会崩塌，现在这一观点依然不变。"
"At the beginning of this year, many people worried that the global economy might fall into recession, and inferred that China's exports might drop significantly under the 'abnormally high base' during the pandemic," said Yu Xiangrong, chief economist for Greater China at Citibank. "At that time, we judged that China's exports in 2023 might experience a 'shallow recession' with a low single-digit decline, but would not collapse. This view remains unchanged now."
余向荣认为，上半年我国出口韧性超预期。尽管上半年我国货物贸易出口额同比增速放缓，但实际上好于周边的开放经济体。例如，韩国、越南和日本的出口额分别同比下降了12.4%、11.9%和6.0%。考虑到全球贸易减速，中国出口交出了一份相对优秀的成绩。
Yu Xiangrong believes that China's export resilience in the first half of the year exceeded expectations. Although the year-on-year growth rate of China's goods trade exports slowed down in the first half of the year, it was actually better than that of neighboring open economies. For example, exports from South Korea, Vietnam and Japan fell by 12.4%, 11.9% and 6.0% year-on-year respectively. Considering the global trade slowdown, China's exports have delivered a relatively excellent performance.
"出口韧性可能比表观数据还要强一点。"余向荣分析，两个因素值得考虑。一是汇率因素，按GDP统计和人民币计价，上半年出口录得了低个位数增长。二是价格因素，今年工业品价格（PPI）严重通缩，剔除物价因素，出口数量依然略有增长。
"Export resilience may be slightly stronger than the apparent data." Yu Xiangrong analyzed that two factors are worth considering. First, the exchange rate factor. According to GDP statistics and RMB pricing, exports achieved low single-digit growth in the first half of the year. Second, the price factor. This year's industrial product prices (PPI) have experienced severe deflation. After excluding price factors, export volume still increased slightly.
总体来看，虽然二季度以来出口放缓较为明显，但上半年出口总体保持了较强的韧性。下半年出口韧性能否延续？余向荣认为，总的来说，外部需求可能会好于预期，而贸易网络多元化和产业结构持续优化将成为中国出口的自身优势。因此，在全球贸易放缓的背景下，相信中国出口可能依然是个"优等生"，预计今年出口额小幅下滑约两个百分点。
Overall, although the export slowdown has been more obvious since the second quarter, exports in the first half of the year generally maintained strong resilience. Can export resilience continue in the second half of the year? Yu Xiangrong believes that, in general, external demand may be better than expected, and the diversification of trade networks and continuous optimization of industrial structure will become China's own advantages in exports. Therefore, against the background of global trade slowdown, it is believed that China's exports may still be a "top student", and it is expected that export volume will decline slightly by about two percentage points this year.
