外贸企业3月订单下滑50% 5月或将迎来转机
经济观察报 记者 张锐 - 4月7日，广州南沙蔡新路附近因疫情防控设置了红色隔离围栏，将肖琼雄的摩托车厂一分为二。"工厂在防范区，但员工住在管控区，只能暂时停工。"肖琼雄表示。作为这家经营20多年的中小型摩托车厂负责人，他透露3月订单已"淡了一半"，而停工更增加了不确定性。
Economic Observer Reporter Zhang Rui - On April 7, red isolation barriers were set up near Caixin Road in Nansha, Guangzhou due to epidemic prevention measures, dividing Xiao Qiongxiong's motorcycle factory in two. "The factory is in the prevention zone, but employees live in the control zone, so we had to temporarily suspend operations," Xiao said. As the head of this medium-sized motorcycle factory operating for over 20 years, he revealed March orders had already "dropped by half," with the shutdown adding further uncertainty.
订单下滑明显：深圳某大型货运代理公司人士表示，3月非常淡，许多工厂没有订单。微博用户"风中的厂长"也反映3月外贸订单少了一半，引发广泛讨论。海关数据显示，1-2月出口同比增长13.6%，但3月新出口订单指数降至47.2%，下滑1.8个百分点。
Significant Order Decline: A representative from a large Shenzhen freight forwarding company described March as "very slow," with many factories having no orders. Weibo user "Factory Owner in the Wind" also reported a 50% drop in March export orders, sparking widespread discussion. Customs data showed January-February exports grew 13.6% year-on-year, but March's new export orders index fell to 47.2%, down 1.8 percentage points.
多重压力叠加：肖琼雄表示，原材料成本上涨已使摩托车制造成本增加10%以上，而利润空间仅5%左右。"提价订单就掉"成为普遍困境。商务部指出，全球供应链瓶颈、芯片短缺、地缘政治风险等因素持续影响外贸企业。
Multiple Pressures Mounting: Xiao Qiongxiong said rising raw material costs have increased motorcycle production costs by over 10%, while profit margins are only about 5%. "Raising prices leads to lost orders" has become a common dilemma. The Ministry of Commerce noted global supply chain bottlenecks, chip shortages, and geopolitical risks continue affecting foreign trade enterprises.
5月或将迎来转机：珠海蓝图科技创始人刘春生预计5月将出现转机，认为去年囤积的库存将在二季度消化完毕。惠州微电新能源创始人陈志勇也表示，在手订单同比增长50%，全年业绩有望翻倍。专家认为，中国制造业优势仍在，不必过度悲观。
May May Bring Turnaround: Liu Chunsheng, founder of Zhuhai Lantu Technology, predicts a turnaround in May, believing last year's accumulated inventory will be depleted in Q2. Chen Zhiyong, founder of Huizhou Microelectric New Energy, also said orders in hand grew 50% year-on-year, with annual performance potentially doubling. Experts believe China's manufacturing advantages remain and excessive pessimism is unnecessary.
行业分化明显：手机、家电等"宅经济"产品出口下滑，而新能源、专精特新企业表现较好。新宝股份表示小家电在海外有类刚需属性，业务保持平稳。这显示中国外贸正在经历结构性调整，高质量、高技术含量产品更具韧性。
Industry Divergence Evident: Exports of "stay-at-home economy" products like phones and appliances declined, while new energy and specialized "little giant" enterprises performed better. Xibaoxiang said small appliances have quasi-essential attributes overseas, maintaining stable business. This shows China's foreign trade undergoing structural adjustment, with higher-quality, technology-intensive products demonstrating greater resilience.
