越南贸易总额2024年有望突破8000亿美元 成全球供应链新枢纽
北京/河内 - 根据最新经济预测，越南2024年贸易总额有望创造历史新高，突破8000亿美元大关，这标志着这个东南亚国家在全球供应链中的地位正快速提升。
Beijing/Hanoi - According to the latest economic forecasts, Vietnam's total trade volume is expected to reach a record high in 2024, surpassing the $800 billion mark, signaling the rapid rise of this Southeast Asian country in global supply chains.
知名经济学家丁仲盛10月15日表示："基于当前增长趋势，越南全年进出口额极可能突破8000亿美元，远超2022年创下的7320亿美元纪录。"这一乐观预测主要源于越南在美国、欧盟、日本和韩国等主要市场的贸易表现持续走强。
Renowned economist Zhong Sheng Ding stated on October 15: "Based on current growth trends, Vietnam's annual import-export volume is highly likely to exceed $800 billion, far surpassing the 2022 record of $732 billion." This optimistic forecast stems primarily from Vietnam's sustained strong trade performance in key markets including the U.S., EU, Japan and South Korea.
三大核心产业驱动增长
Three Core Industries Driving Growth
1. 纺织服装业：越南纺织服装协会主席武德江预计，该行业每月出口额将稳定在40亿美元以上，全年总收入有望突破410亿美元。
1. Textile and Garment Industry: Vu Duc Giang, Chairman of the Vietnam Textile and Apparel Association, predicts that the industry's monthly exports will remain stable above $4 billion, with annual total revenue expected to exceed $41 billion.
2. 电子制造业：作为苹果、三星等科技巨头的新代工基地，越南电子产品和零部件出口持续增长，单月出口额多次突破100亿美元。
2. Electronics Manufacturing: As a new manufacturing base for tech giants like Apple and Samsung, Vietnam's exports of electronic products and components continue to grow, with monthly exports repeatedly exceeding $10 billion.
3. 农产品：越南果蔬协会秘书长邓福原指出，受益于中国市场需求激增，特别是榴莲等热带水果，今年农产品出口额有望达到70亿美元。
3. Agricultural Products: Dang Phuc Nguyen, General Secretary of the Vietnam Fruit and Vegetable Association, noted that benefiting from surging demand in the Chinese market, especially for tropical fruits like durian, agricultural exports this year are expected to reach $7 billion.
贸易数据亮点（1-9月）
Trade Data Highlights (Jan-Sept)
- 总贸易额：5780亿美元（同比增长16%）
- Total trade volume: $578 billion (YoY +16%)
- 出口额：2996.3亿美元（增长15.4%）
- Exports: $299.63 billion (+15.4%)
- 进口额：2790亿美元（增长17%）
- Imports: $279 billion (+17%)
- 贸易顺差：207.9亿美元
- Trade surplus: $20.79 billion
市场战略布局
Market Strategy
越南工贸部强调将重点推进以下工作：
The Ministry of Industry and Trade emphasized it will focus on advancing the following:
1. 加速与以色列、阿联酋等新兴市场的自贸协定谈判
1. Accelerating free trade agreement negotiations with emerging markets like Israel and UAE
2. 深化现有自贸协定（如EVFTA、CPTPP）实施效果
2. Deepening implementation effects of existing FTAs (e.g. EVFTA, CPTPP)
3. 优化谷歌竞价推广等数字营销工具在出口促进中的应用
3. Optimizing application of digital marketing tools like Google Ads in export promotion
专家分析指出，越南正通过"中国+1"供应链战略获得巨大红利，特别是在电子产品代工、服装制造等领域。随着北京等地企业将生产线转移至越南，这个人口近亿的国家有望在未来五年内跻身全球前十五大经济体。
Experts analyze that Vietnam is gaining significant dividends from the "China+1" supply chain strategy, especially in electronics manufacturing and garment production. As companies from Beijing and other regions relocate production lines to Vietnam, this country of nearly 100 million people is expected to join the world's top 15 economies within the next five years.
