越南电子制造业崛起：能否取代中国成为"世界工厂"？
近年来，越南电子出口呈现爆发式增长，根据越南《青年报》2024年6月28日的报道，2024年前5个月，越南出口总额创历史新高，其中手机及零部件出口达224亿美元，计算机和电子产品出口更是高达270.1亿美元。
In recent years, Vietnam's electronics exports have experienced explosive growth. According to a June 28, 2024 report by Vietnamese newspaper Tuoi Tre, in the first five months of 2024, Vietnam's total exports reached a record high, with mobile phones and components exports reaching $22.4 billion, while computer and electronics exports hit $27.01 billion.
这一数据使越南超越印度，成为全球第二大智能手机出口国，仅次于中国。然而，越南制造业仍面临诸多挑战，与中国这个"世界工厂"相比还有明显差距。
This data has made Vietnam surpass India to become the world's second-largest smartphone exporter, second only to China. However, Vietnam's manufacturing sector still faces many challenges and shows a significant gap compared to China, the "world factory."
越南制造业的崛起之路
The Rise of Vietnam's Manufacturing Sector
越南制造业的快速发展始于2007年加入WTO后。2008年，三星在北宁省建立了第一家手机工厂，随后10年间，三星在越南投资建设了6家工厂和1个研发中心。
The rapid development of Vietnam's manufacturing sector began after joining the WTO in 2007. In 2008, Samsung established its first mobile phone factory in Bac Ninh province. Over the next decade, Samsung invested in building six factories and one R&D center in Vietnam.
2018年后，随着耐克、阿迪达斯、苹果等国际品牌将生产线转移至越南，越南制造业迎来爆发式增长。但专家指出，越南目前仍处于"简单组装"的中低端制造阶段，相当于中国10年前的水平。
After 2018, with international brands like Nike, Adidas, and Apple moving production lines to Vietnam, Vietnam's manufacturing sector experienced explosive growth. However, experts point out that Vietnam is still in the "simple assembly" phase of mid-to-low-end manufacturing, equivalent to China's level ten years ago.
面临的挑战与局限
Challenges and Limitations
2023年，由于全球电子产品需求下降，越南约4.5万名电子产业工人失业（澎湃新闻2023年6月29日报道）。2024年，越南又遭遇严重电力危机，超过1.1万家工厂因缺电停工。
In 2023, due to declining global demand for electronic products, about 45,000 electronics industry workers in Vietnam lost their jobs (The Paper, June 29, 2023). In 2024, Vietnam faced a severe power crisis, with over 11,000 factories forced to suspend operations due to electricity shortages.
越南制造业面临三大核心问题：
- 基础设施薄弱，电力供应不稳定
- 缺乏核心零部件生产能力，依赖中国进口
- 产业链不完整，仍处于全球价值链低端
Vietnam's manufacturing sector faces three core issues:
- Weak infrastructure and unstable power supply
- Lack of core component production capacity, relying on imports from China
- Incomplete industrial chain, still at the low end of the global value chain
与中国制造的差距
The Gap with "Made in China"
尽管越南制造业发展迅速，但与"中国制造"相比仍有明显差距：
Despite rapid development, there's still a significant gap between Vietnam's manufacturing and "Made in China":
| 比较维度 | 中国 | 越南 |
|---|---|---|
| 产业链完整性 | 完整，涵盖高中低端 | 主要集中在组装环节 |
| 技术研发能力 | 强，拥有自主核心技术 | 弱，依赖外资技术 |
| 基础设施 | 完善，电力供应稳定 | 薄弱，经常停电 |
专家认为，越南要真正成为"世界工厂"，必须解决基础设施瓶颈、发展本土零部件产业、提升技术水平，这需要长期投入和持续发展。
Experts believe that for Vietnam to truly become the "world factory", it must address infrastructure bottlenecks, develop local component industries, and improve technological capabilities, which requires long-term investment and sustained development.
