评价高的国际贸易平台：谷歌竞价推广工作好做吗？中国出口增速今年能达到多少？
花旗银行大中华区首席经济学家余向荣日前表示，尽管存在贸易保护主义风险，但短期内中国出口仍有三大支撑因素，预计今年出口增速在5%左右，明年可能在4.5%左右。
Citigroup's Greater China Chief Economist Yu Xiangrong recently stated that despite the risks of trade protectionism, China's exports still have three major supporting factors in the short term. It is estimated that export growth this year will be around 5%, and next year it may be around 4.5%.
6月29日，余向荣在中国宏观经济论坛（CMF）举办的研讨会上指出，上半年中国经济数据屡超预期，外贸出口产业链对经济的拉动效果明显，尽管存在贸易保护主义，但仍要看到短期内支撑中国出口的一系列因素，包括全球南方国家的机遇、新出口动能强劲以及美国大选前的抢单效应。
On June 29, Yu Xiangrong pointed out at a seminar hosted by the China Macroeconomic Forum (CMF) that China's economic data in the first half of the year repeatedly exceeded expectations, and the export industrial chain significantly contributed to economic growth. Despite trade protectionism, there are still a series of factors supporting China's exports in the short term, including opportunities in Global South countries, strong new export momentum, and the rush-order effect before the U.S. election.
余向荣表示，尽管发达经济体总需求有所回落，但仍处在从服务业支出转向商品支出的通道中。同时，中国的外需结构正在从发达经济体为主转向新兴市场和全球南方国家，虽然美国下半年经济或稍有放缓，但其他贸易伙伴有望填补美国的缺口。
Yu Xiangrong noted that although the total demand in developed economies has declined, they are still transitioning from service expenditures to goods expenditures. Meanwhile, China's external demand structure is shifting from developed economies to emerging markets and Global South countries. Although the U.S. economy may slow slightly in the second half of the year, other trading partners are expected to fill the gap.
另外，中国出口还有结构性增长的空间。“中国的出口动能在产业升级中练就了真本事，欧盟对中国电动汽车征税符合预期，即便考虑加征的关税，中国的电动车仍有较强性价比，不会改变中国电动车较为强劲的增长势头。”余向荣说。
Additionally, there is room for structural growth in China's exports. "China's export momentum has developed real capabilities through industrial upgrading. The EU's tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles were expected, and even considering the additional tariffs, Chinese EVs still offer strong cost-performance, which will not alter their robust growth trend," Yu Xiangrong said.
他还提到，目前全球科技产业正处在上行周期，有利于中国电子产品的出口。1-5月，中国集成电路出口同比增长20%左右，电脑出货量同比增长5%左右，这个势头短期内可能不会放缓。
He also mentioned that the global tech industry is currently in an upward cycle, benefiting China's electronics exports. From January to May, China's integrated circuit exports grew by about 20% year-on-year, while computer shipments increased by about 5%. This momentum is unlikely to slow down in the short term.
除上述两个方面，余向荣还提到了美国大选前的抢单效应。他指出，美国前总统唐纳德·特朗普曾表示，如果重新执政，将对所有中国产品加征60%的关税，随着产品库存周期的正常化，面临这样的不确定性，美国企业可能会增加对中国的订单。
Apart from the above two aspects, Yu Xiangrong also highlighted the rush-order effect before the U.S. election. He pointed out that former U.S. President Donald Trump once stated that if re-elected, he would impose a 60% tariff on all Chinese products. Facing such uncertainty amid normalized inventory cycles, U.S. companies may increase orders from China.
“从近期船运价格看，中美（航线）、中欧（航线）涨幅高于欧美航线，这在一定程度反映了地缘政治不确定性下的抢单效应。”余向荣说。
"Recent shipping price trends show that the increases in China-U.S. and China-Europe routes are higher than those in Europe-U.S. routes, reflecting the rush-order effect under geopolitical uncertainty to some extent," Yu Xiangrong said.
从中长期看，余向荣认为，地缘政治阻力不容忽视，提振消费、畅通内循环才是中国经济可持续增长的必要条件。
From a medium- to long-term perspective, Yu Xiangrong believes that geopolitical resistance cannot be ignored. Boosting consumption and smoothing domestic circulation are essential for China's sustainable economic growth.
他指出，一季度中国经济超预期，但市场和公众的预期并未出现明显改善，超预期主要超在出口产业链上，未能明显传导到居民收入和资产价格上，从而有效带动内循环。
He pointed out that China's economy exceeded expectations in the first quarter, but market and public expectations did not significantly improve. The outperformance was mainly driven by the export industrial chain and did not significantly translate into household income or asset prices, thus failing to effectively boost domestic circulation.
“这一轮欧洲加征关税可能不会阻挡中国产品进入欧洲，中国也有足够的筹码解决争端。不过，即便中欧在未来一段时间取得了阶段性的和解，但随着中国电动汽车和相关产品在欧洲市场份额的扩大，欧洲政党轮替，中欧贸易争端会被不断提及甚至升级。”余向荣说。
"This round of EU tariffs may not block Chinese products from entering Europe, and China has sufficient leverage to resolve disputes. However, even if China and Europe reach a temporary reconciliation in the near future, as Chinese EVs and related products expand their market share in Europe and European political parties rotate, trade disputes between China and Europe will continue to be mentioned or even escalate," Yu Xiangrong said.
